Breaking down 2020 AFC South win total betting splits

The NFL appears to be on track to play a full season in 2020, meaning there’s a good chance our season long bets will actually play out. DraftKings Sportsbook has released betting splits for team win totals which gives us a good look into how the public sees each team’s chances this season. Whether you’re inclined to back or fade the betting public, this information offers some helpful insight into where you might want to go with your picks.

Indianapolis Colts Win total: 9

Over (-110): 98% handle, 94% bets
Under (-110): 2% handle, 6% bets

Notable additions: QB Philip Rivers, DT DeForest Buckner, CB Xavier Rhodes, CB T.J. Carrie, WR Michael Pittman*, RB Jonathan Taylor*
Notable departures: CB Pierre Desir, TE Eric Ebron

The Colts upgraded across the board this offseason, with Philip Rivers being the biggest name added. Last season they got off to a strong start with Jacoby Brissett, but an injury and regression for Brissett tanked the end of the season. They ended up with seven wins in 2019 coming off 10 wins with Andrew Luck in 2018. With strong coaching and an above average roster, Rivers should be able to lead them to a winning record.

Tennessee Titans Win total: 8.5

Over (-130): 79% handle, 80% bets
Under (+107): 21% handle, 20% bets

Notable additions: OLB Vic Beasley, DT Jack Crawford, OT Isaiah Wilson*, CB Kristian Fulton*
Notable departures: OT Jack Conklin, DE Jurrell Casey, WR Tajae Sharpe,

The Titans had a great run to end last year and have now won nine games in each of their last four seasons. It is probably too much to ask for Ryan Tannehill to have another season like he did in 2019, but overall the Titans have a good roster and are built to always be in games. This team should be better than their four straight nine win seasons, but they can’t be counted on to dominate games consistently. I like the over, as most bettors do so far, but I am skeptical.

Houston Texans, Win total: 7.5

Over (-106): 89% handle, 70% bets
Under (-115): 11% handle, 30% bets

Notable additions: RB David Johnson, WR Brandin Cooks, WR Randall Cobb, DT Ross Blacklock
Notable departures: WR DeAndre Hopkins, S Tashaun Gipson, CB Johnathan Joseph, DT D.J. Reader*

The Texans won 10 games last season and 11 the season before, but losing DeAndre Hopkins is a blow and the sportsbook doesn’t like their chances of repeating in what should be a tougher division. The total is low, which makes the over appealing, especially with Deshaun Watson still at the helm. As long as he is healthy, an eight win season is very much a possibility.

Jacksonville Jaguars, Win total: 4.5

Over (-110): 19% handle, 32% bets
Under (-110): 81% handle, 68% bets

Notable additions: LB Joe Schobert, CB Rashaan Melvin, DE Rodney Gunter, TE Tyler Eifert, CB C.J. Henderson*, OLB K’Lavon Chaisson*, WR Laviska Shenault*
Notable departures: CB A.J. Bouye, DE Calais Campbell

The Jaguars are a popular bet to tank this year, but the team did win six games last year with Gardner Minshew as the starter. Their defense will be worse, which is why this win total number is low. The handle is widely in favor of the under, but the over is isn’t a bet I’d take off the table this season.

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