DraftKings Sportsbook UFC Fight Night Dustin Poirier vs Dan Hooker: Notable Betting Insights

The UFC is back at it again from UFC APEX in Las Vegas on Saturday night with a 10-fight card that features lightweights Dustin Poirier and Dan Hooker.

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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

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Could Dan Hooker upset Dustin Poirier this weekend?

Mike Perry is a Rare Contrarian Favorite

Despite the pervasive concept in fighting of a “puncher’s chance,” MMA betting tends to look a lot like other major sports in terms of where the money falls. The betting public usually leans toward favorites, with underdogs only getting excessive hype on rare occasions. Saturday’s fight between Mike Perry and Mickey Gall is one of those occasions, with 37% of the bets but a whopping 62% of the handle on the +235 underdog Gall. Gall is a local fighter, growing up in New Jersey, and that may be a substantial factor in explaining why he’s getting so much love from DraftKings bettors. Perry is also coming off of two straight losses and has had some publicized turmoil with his coaches, so the narratives favoring Gall appear to be strong. This isn’t to say that Perry shouldn’t be the -315 favorite that he is, but it’s clear that bettors view Gall as live for an upset.

Substantial Line Movement for Youssef Zalal

Earlier this week, Youssef Zalal opened as a +105 underdog against Jordan Griffin. Zalal is a young fighter, just 23, and he’s a mere 1-0 in the UFC, winning his debut back in February. Despite the inexperience, bettors are strongly on his side and have caused the odds for this fight to flip, with Zalal moving all the way to -134. The line movement is clearly being driven by strong betting sentiment, with 67% of the bets and 86% of the handle coming in on Zalal. Even as a small favorite, Zalal is claiming the largest handle percentage of any fighter on Saturday’s card. DraftKings bettors will largely be looking for him to extend his UFC record to 2-0.

Conflicting Data for the Main Event

Saturday’s main event features Dustin Poirier (-235) and Dan Hooker (+185), two fighters who have both been in strong form recently. Hooker has won three consecutive fights, while Poirier had his four-fight win streak snapped by lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov back in September 2019. Poirier is getting 71% of the bets and 67% of the handle, which is pretty standard for a -235 favorite, but the win method splits tell a bit of a different story. A total of 51% of the win method bets are on Poirier to win by knockout (+110), but those bets only account for 34% of the handle. Meanwhile, 21% of the win method bets are on various ways for Hooker to win, and those bets add up to 37% of the handle.

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