Jim Miller and Roosevelt Roberts will fight at a catchweight of 160 lbs. this weekend at UFC on ESPN 11. But is there fantasy value in this fight? We’ll take a look at who can score early and often in this fight.
Jim Miller: $7,000
Roosevelt Roberts: $9,200
Roberts is a favorite on the money line at -240 while Miller is +185.
Miller is 31-14 in MMA fighter, and has fought in the UFC 35 times. He’s 20-13 with a no contest in UFC bouts, and has 17 submissions and four knockouts in his career. He’ll want to get this fight on the mat, with 1.69 takedowns per 15 minutes of octagon time in the UFC.
Roberts is 10-1 in MMA and 4-1 in the UFC, but not very active with just 2.88 strikes per minute. He can win either in the stand-up or on the mat with three TKO’s and five submissions, but he doesn’t tend to get first-round stoppages.
The catchweight of 160 means Roberts is moving up a bit here, and that might take away a bit of his strength on the mat. He’s also gone the distance in three of his last four fights, and his last win via stoppage was in the second round. With the heavy price you’ve got to lay here, this might not be the best spot for a non-striker that can’t win first-round stoppage points.
Miller certainly wouldn’t be a great choice unless you think he can get an early submission outright. It seems there’s better plays on the card than what’s on offer here.