The main event of UFC on ESPN 11 tonight is heavyweight #3 Curtis Blaydes vs. #7 Alexander Volkov, but is there a good DFS angle to this fight as well?
Curtis Blaydes: $9,400
Alexander Volkov: $6,800
The bettors have installed Blaydes as a massive favorite at -435, with Volkov coming in at +318.
Blaydes has 10 TKO/KO’s in 13 career victories. The 29-year-old from Elevation Fight Team stopped Junior dos Santos in January at 1:06 of the second round, and his only loss of late is to top-contender Francis Ngannou. He certainly has stopping power, but can he do it over a fighter with more reach?
Volkov is 31-7, 5-1 in the UFC, but coming off a decision win over Greg Hardy in December. He has 23 career stoppages, but just two in the UFC while being ranked #7 in the promotion. His fight with Derrick Lewis was stopped with just 11 seconds remaining in his only loss since June of 2015.
If you’re paying $9,400, you better be getting a stoppage. Blaydes does finish people, but often not until the second or third round. With fighters getting 90 points for a first round stoppage, but just 70 in the second round and 45 in the third, you need the earliest possible ending if you take Blaydes. Whereas if you can find a path for Volkov to pull the upset, any kind of win will be fine at such a cheap price.