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Justin Gaethje defeats Tony Ferguson by knockout

Tony Ferguson and Justin Gaethje meet at UFC 249 in a matchup for the interim lightweight title. We break down how the betting public is picking the fight.

Gaethje vs. Ferguson results: Justin Gaethje wins by TKO in the fifth round.

UFC 249 is set to go down Saturday evening, May 9th on ESPN+. The opening early preliminary fight starts at 6:30 p.m., the main preliminaries get going at 8 p.m., and the main card gets underway at 10 p.m.

The main event of UFC 249 is a fight for the lightweight interim championship, and will feature Tony Ferguson facing Justin Gaethje. This fight was originally intended to be Ferguson against Khabib Nurmagomedov, but two of the best lightweights in MMA history managed to miss each other yet again — this time due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

The betting public is backing Ferguson in a big way, with 79 percent of money bet on the money line at DraftKings Sportsbook in his favor. He entered the weekend a -186 favorite over Gaethje. His favored status reflects in the other betting options, shown below. A plurality of bettors expect Ferguson to win by KO, TKO, or DQ, but a healthy group of bettors think he could win by submission. If Gaethje is going to spring the upset, the largest group of his backers think it will be via KO, TKO, or DQ.

Here are the updated betting lines for Tony Ferguson vs. Justin Gaethje in the UFC 249 main event.

Ferguson vs. Gaethje betting splits

Fighters Ferguson Gaethje
Fighters Ferguson Gaethje
Record 26-3 21-2
ML Odds -186 +158
To Go the Distance Yes (+320) No (-500)
Total Rounds Over 2.5 (+100) Under 2.5 (-134)
To Win by KO, TKO or DQ +260 +180
To Win by Submission +240 +2500
To Win by Decision +500 +1200
ML Splits (By Handle) 79% 21%
ML Splits (By Bets) 69% 31%
By KO, TKO, DQ handle 42% 20%
By KO, TKO, DQ bets 44% 19%
By Submission handle 29% 1%
By Submission bets 22% 2%
By Decision handle 4% 1%
By decision bets 9% 2%
Tie 1% handle 3% bets

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