DFS considerations for Chris Gutierrez vs. Vince Morales

UFC on ESPN 9 marks the return of MMA to Las Vegas as the state of Nevada begins re-opening during the Covid-19 pandemic. The 11-fight card is headlined by a welterweight contenders bout between Tyron Woodley and Gilbert Burns.

The preliminary card opens a little after 6 p.m. with a featherweight fight between Chris “El Guapo” Gutierrez and Vince “Vandetta” Morales. If you’re taking part in some UFC daily fantasy sports contests this weekend, this is probably not a fight to have too high on your radar.

Gutierrez enters the fight 14-4-1 and coming off two straight wins since entering UFC. In three UFC fights, he is averaging 47.2 fantasy points per fight and is currently $8,300. His price has climbed on the back of two straight decision victories at Fight Night 148 and Fight Night 156. He’s averaging 47 significant strikes per fight, and has a takedown and a reversal/sweep.

Morales is 9-4 and has lost three of his last five fights. He is averaging 46.3 fantasy points per fight and is currently $7,900. He is averaging 65 significant strikes per fight, and has one knockdown.

I’d say avoid this fight, but given the popularity of some other fighters, there could be modest value in picking a fighter that won’t be in many lineups. Gutierrez is a slim favorite, installed at -115 to Morales’ -108. 60 percent of total bets and 54 percent of total money wagered is on Gutierrez. A win is a huge boost, but if you are going to pick from this fight, Morales might be the better play with his greater significant strike rate. That coupled with potential for a modest upset offers a little bit of value.

Adding someone from this fight to your DFS lineup would be for contrarian strategic purposes.