Breaking down early Colts point spreads

The NFL released the 2020 schedule and the Indianapolis Colts open the Philip Rivers era with a road game against the Jaguars. The Colts are currently slight favorites to win the AFC South at +140 to the Titans +150. Indy’s preseason win total is installed at 8.5 with -143 odds on the over and +118 odds on the under.

DraftKings Sportsbook posted all the Week 1 point spreads the evening of the schedule release, and they have since added nearly 100 additional games throughout the season. DK does big business in New Jersey and Colorado, so it is no surprise they have all 16 lines for the Giants, Jets, Eagles, and Broncos. However, they have multiple lines for other teams as well. For the Colts, they’ve unveiled all but their Week 17 line.

Point spreads

Week 1: @ Jaguars (-7)
Week 2: vs. Vikings (-3)
Week 3: vs. Jets (-7)
Week 4: @ Bears (+1)
Week 5: @ Browns (+2)
Week 6: vs. Bengals (-8.5)
Week 8: @ Lions (-1)
Week 9: vs. Ravens (+2.5)
Week 10: TNF @ Titans (+2.5)
Week 11: vs. Packers (-3)
Week 12: vs. Titans (-3)
Week 13: @ Texans (+1)
Week 14: @ Raiders (-1)
Week 15: vs. Texans (-5)
Week 16: @ Steelers (+2.5)

Most likely cover

I am bullish on the Colts this season after they added veteran Philip Rivers to a strong overall team. That doesn’t make them Super Bowl bound, but should give them a decent chance in each game this season. I’m also on board with road team early in the season, as there is a good chance we will have games without fans, giving the road teams an advantage. That could show up in Week 1 against a Jaguars team that is working on a rebuild that has made their team extremely young and likely inconsistent at best. The -7 point line is steep, especially as Rivers and company may be behind the curve in preparation, but Rivers and Frank Reich should be a veteran and coaching presence that smooths out that curve in a great matchup.

Most likely fail to cover

The Colts have a pretty easy schedule this season, but once they hit Week 9, they’ll get a shock to their system when they have to take on the Ravens at home. The Colts will be a solid team but the Ravens are a machine, that if it’s firing on all cylinders, is going to put up a lot of points and hold teams to very few. The Colts defense should be their weakness this season and the Ravens are going to once again be extremely tough to slow down.

Line most likely to change

Right now the Colts are three-point favorites at home against the Packers in Week 11. I think that’s a good number, but I also believe we see the Packers slide this year while the Colts stay competitive. In the end, I could see this line rising as the season develops.

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