Breaking down early Packers point spreads

The NFL released the 2020 schedule and the Green Bay Packers look to open their Super Bowl push with a huge divisional road opener against the Vikings. The Packers are +170 to win the NFC North, sitting just behind the +165 Vikings. Green Bay’s preseason win total is installed at 9 with +103 odds on the over and -125 odds on the under.

DraftKings Sportsbook posted all the Week 1 point spreads the evening of the schedule release, and they have since added nearly 100 additional games throughout the season. DK does big business in New Jersey and Colorado, so it is no surprise they have all 16 lines for the Giants, Jets, Eagles, and Broncos. However, they have multiple lines for other teams as well. For the Packers, we get three additional lines, including a potential playoff preview in New Orleans.

Point spreads

Week 1: @ Vikings (+3.5)
Week 3: SNF @ Saints (+6.5)
Week 11: @ Colts (+3)
Week 13: vs. Eagles (-2)

Most likely cover

Aaron Rodgers will have a thousand pound chip on his shoulder this season after his team drafted Jordan Love in the first round, but he sure won’t have an upgrade in receiver choices. It looks like the run game and defense are going to need to be on point for the Packers this season. The four choices we have here are all tough matchups, but of them. the Vikings are a team that didn’t do much this offseason to improve and ended up losing Stefon Diggs. It isn’t a smash spot in Minnesota, but a game without fans in Week 1 would be advantageous to the visiting team.

Most likely fail to cover

After the team didn’t help their quarterback this offseason, I’m mostly looking to fade the Packers, who didn’t play like their record for much of last season. Any of these games look like spots we could lean toward the opposition but I’ll take the Saints, who should be ready to roll right out of the gate. The line is fairly high and could drop if and when we learn the teams will play in empty stadiums, but even as it is, I like what the Saints did this offseason and I expect them to be a tough beat all season.

Line most likely to change

The Eagles improved this offseason while the Packers didn’t. I expect the Eagles pass defense does better this season while their offense will get a boost from DeSean Jackson returning and Jalen Reagor adding another speedster to the offense. By Week 13 those offseason moves should be well integrated while the Packers will still be looking for a second receiver at that point.

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