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How the public is betting Matt Brown vs. Miguel Baeza [UPDATE]

Matt Brown faces Miguel Baeza in a welterweight preliminary bout at UFC on ESPN 8 on May 16th. We break down how the betting public is picking the fight.

Matt Brown and Miguel Baeza face off during the official UFC Fight Night weigh-in on May 15, 2020 in Jacksonville, Florida. Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Update: Miguel Baeza knocks out Matt Brown at 18 seconds of the second round. It was a sensational first round with each fighter scoring a big takedown, but Baeza caught Brown clean with a left hook early in the second and it was over.

A pair of welterweights battle on the undercard of UFC on ESPN 8 from Jacksonville tonight as veteran Matt Brown faces undefeated Miguel Baeza from the VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena.

Baeza is 8-0 as an MMA fighter with five career stoppages, including a TKO by kicks of Hector Aldana in his UFC debut in October. The 27-year-old from Fort Lauderdale, and admires the history of his fellow Puerto Rican fighters such as Felix Trinidad and Miguel Cotto, hoping to bring MMA to that tradition.

Brown is 39 years old, and has been on the UFC roster for 12 years. A 24-16 record includes back-to-back TKO wins in his last two fights, but with a two-year gap between them. 61% of his wins coming by KO or TKO, and he has 3.78 significant strikes per minute landed in his UFC career.

The action has come in heavily on the underdog Brown, with the line moving aggressively in that direction. Although the handle is pretty balanced, this might be an indication the sharper UFC bettors are going with the veteran against the untested youngster.

Here are the betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook for Matt Brown vs. Miguel Baeza at UFC on ESPN 8 on May 16th:

Update Saturday 1:30 p.m.

Matt Brown: +130, 48% handle, 43% bets
Miguel Baeza: -162, 52% handle, 57% bets

Betting splits

Matt Brown: Opened +160, now +130, 49% handle, 37% bets
Miguel Baeza: Opened -200, now -162, 51% handle, 63% bets

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