Two of the top five ranked golfers in the world in Dustin Johnson and Rory McIlroy will pair up to face Rickie Fowler and reigning NCAA champion Matthew Wolff in the TaylorMade Driving Relief 2020 Skins Game this Sunday, May 17th. There are plenty of odds and prop bets available for the match, so let’s break down the course as best as we can and see who might be able to win which holes on the exclusive Seminole Golf Club near Florida’s tony Palm Beach.
Hole 1 winner
This is a 375-yard dog leg right that doesn’t necessarily favor any of these four golfers. Keep in mind, McIlroy was second on the PGA Tour in driving distance last year, while Johnson was fourth. Wolff wasn’t a full Tour member last year, but was 21st in 2020 before the stoppage in play, and Fowler finished 30th last season, but was 150th in 2020. The holes that favor the bombers are the ones where you should find more of an edge, and that’s not here. These guys know this course, and someone isn’t jumping out to a lead on an easy early hole. We figure this starts in a tie.
The other prop we like here is to take all the players to make birdie. The odds are McIlroy +300, DJ +320, Fowler +320, and Wolff +400. There’s a non-zero possibility three or four guys roll it in here, so we’ll take all of them and hope at least two of them sink it.
Holes 3, 4 longest drive
This is a 504-yard Par 5 dogleg right, and here’s where the length of Rory and DJ should help. Both players live in the area and know this course well, so local knowledge and ridiculous clubhead speed should reign. We’ll take DJ to nip it past his physically smaller partner.
The fourth hole has the same wagering odds, but the hole is just 450 yards and dead straight away from the tee box. We’ve got DJ here as well, who can just let it fly easier and use his height and swing arc.
Holes 5, 17 closest to pin
Fowler has the best iron game of the four by the stats, and #5 is a 207-yard Par 3. His odds are +275 which seems like great value, So we’ll take him to tuck it in closer than Rory at +210, DJ at +225, or Wolff at +350.
Same thing with 17, which is 179 yards and has a green everyone will know how to hit.
Leading team after three holes, tie no bet
We’ll lay the wood with Rory and DJ here for two reasons: The first three holes are two Par 4’s and a Par 5 where their length should be an advantage, and it’s possible Wolff might be very nervous out of the tee box having never had this many people watch him play golf before.
Fowler’s fellow Oklahoma State Cowboy and the 2019 NCAA Champion is going to be a monster on tour most likely, but this will still be a very big stage. While the duo might get back into the match later, we think they drop at least a skin before the fourth tee.
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