Breaking down early Broncos point spreads

The NFL released the 2020 schedule and the Denver Broncos look to build on a solid start to the Drew Lock era with a home game against the Titans. The Broncos have the second best AFC West odds at +800, but well behind the heavily favored Chiefs (-400). Their preseason win total is installed at 7.5 with -115 odds on the over and -106 odds on the under.

DraftKings Sportsbook posted all the Week 1 point spreads the evening of the schedule release, and they have since added nearly 100 additional games throughout the season. DK does big business in New Jersey and Colorado, so we get to see an almost entirely complete list of Broncos point spreads, minus Week 17.

Point spreads

Week 1: vs. Titans (-1.5)
Week 2: @ Steelers (+4.5)
Week 3: vs. Buccaneers (+1.5)
Week 4: @ Jets (-1)
Week 5: @ Patriots (+5)
Week 6: vs. Dolphins (-5.5)
Week 7: vs. Chiefs (+4.5)
Week 9: @ Falcons (+3)
Week 10: @ Raiders (+2)
Week 11: vs. Chargers (-2.5)
Week 12: vs. Saints (+3.5)
Week 13: @ Chiefs (+10.5)
Week 14: @ Panthers (-1.5)
Week 15: vs. Bills (-1)
Week 16: @ Chargers (+2.5)

Most likely cover

The Broncos made some strong moves to max out their offensive skill players, but will still need Drew Lock to play consistent football. Some time to get Melvin Gordon, Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler integrated into the offense should be expected. Of their later matchups this season, a home game against the Chargers in Week 11 looks like a great chance to get an easy win. The Chargers offense is going to be hurt by the loss of Philip Rivers and by then they may have given Justin Herbert the job to get him reps in real time.

Most likely fail to cover

The Broncos are favored by 1.5 over the Titans at home on Monday Night Football Week 1 and there’s a good chance that game will be played without fans. The Titans will have trouble living up to their strong finish last season, but the Broncos are going to have a lot of new moving parts along with a quarterback making his first season opener start. I’ll give the team that went into Baltimore last year and shut down the Ravens in the playoffs the edge here.

Line most likely to change

We don’t have a good handle on the Broncos this season, other than we know they’ve upgraded their offensive personnel. The same can be said about the Panthers, who now have a new coach and new quarterback going into the 2020 season. They have offensive playmakers but a weak defense and a whole new scheme. These two teams face off in Week 14 at Carolina, with the Panthers favored by 1.5 points. A lot could change that number either way.

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