Breaking down early Bengals point spreads

The NFL released the 2020 schedule and the Cincinnati Bengals open the Joe Burrow era with a home game against the Chargers. The Bengals are AFC North longshots, sitting at +2000. Their preseason win total is installed at 6 with -110 odds on both the over and under.

DraftKings Sportsbook posted all the Week 1 point spreads the evening of the schedule release, and they have since added nearly 100 additional games throughout the season. DK does big business in New Jersey and Colorado, so it is no surprise they have all 16 lines for the Giants, Jets, Eagles, and Broncos. However, they have multiple lines for other teams as well. For the Bengals, we get five additional lines, including road games against the Eagles, Colts and Steelers.

Point spreads

Week 1: vs. Chargers (+3.5)
Week 3: @ Eagles (+7.5)
Week 6: @ Colts (+8.5)
Week 10: @ Steelers (+7.5)
Week 12: vs. Giants (-1)
Week 15: vs. Steelers (+3.5)

Most likely cover

I don’t love any of these lines for the young Bengals team and would rather go with a game late in the season after Joe Burrow gets acclimated to his team and offense, but their Week 1 game at home against the Chargers looks like a toss up. The Chargers defense is what gives them the advantage on the road, but with Tyrod Taylor or Justin Herbert at the helm on the road to start the season, this game has a high variance of outcomes and I’ll take the Bengals as +3.5 home dogs.

Most likely fail to cover

An early season game in Philadelphia isn’t optimal for this young Bengals team. The Bengals will likely rely on Joe Mixon a lot early in the year and the Eagles have a stout run defense and what should be an improved passing game. The Bengals will be behind the curve with a new quarterback and new secondary players in a shortened offseason, which does not bode well for this matchup in Philadelphia. I’ll give the stout -7.5 points in this matchup.

Line most likely to change

Bengals lines will change depending on how quickly Burrow can start moving the offense. And when you add in another team, like the Giants, who have a young quarterback, there will be plenty of room for their Week 12 game to see a big change. If, by then, Burrow hasn’t been able to put points on the board, the Giants could be in a much better spot to take advantage of an overall weak defense.

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