Breaking down early Chiefs point spreads

The NFL released the 2020 schedule and the Kansas City Chiefs will open their Super Bowl defense with the annual Thursday home opener, against the Houston Texans. The Chiefs as Super Bowl favorites at +600, and -400 favorites to win the AFC West. Their preseason win total is installed at 11.5 with -110 odds on both the over and under.

DraftKings Sportsbook posted all the Week 1 point spreads the evening of the schedule release, and they have since added nearly 100 additional games throughout the season. DK does big business in New Jersey and Colorado, so it is no surprise they have all 16 lines for the Giants, Jets, Eagles, and Broncos. However, they have multiple lines for other teams as well. For the Chiefs, we get five additional lines, including key matchups with the Ravens and Patriots.

Point spreads

Week 1: vs. Texans (-10)
Week 3: @ Ravens (+2.5)
Week 4: vs. Patriots (-6.5)
Week 7: @ Broncos (-4.5)
Week 8: vs. Jets (-11.5)
Week 13: vs. Broncos (-10.5)

Most likely cover

The Chiefs are favorites in all but the matchup in Baltimore, where home field advantage gives the Ravens a slight edge in the spread. We don’t know if and when fans will be let back into stadiums, so home field might not be what it usually is, but not traveling in the age of social distancing will have its benefits. A home game against the Jarrett Stidham-led Patriots in Week 4 looks like a game to target for Patrick Mahomes and crew. Bill Belichick gives New England a chance every week, but Stidham will be on his fourth start ever on the road against the world champs and a 6.5-point advantage doesn’t feel like it is enough.

Most likely fail to cover

The Chiefs will go into Baltimore against a defense that has improved over the offseason and was already one of the better units in the league. I hate having any team giving 2.5 points to the Chiefs, but the Ravens offseason moves and ability to force the issue at the line of scrimmage will be tough for Kansas City, as their weakness is on their defensive front.

Line most likely to change

Any game later in the season has a good chance to change, but the Broncos are a team that just added a nice group of receivers in the draft and have a young quarterback in Drew Lock. Lock showed flashes at the end of last season and with some time to gel with his new receivers, Denver’s offense could be ready to take a step forward this season. If they do that, I’d expect this line to fall out of double-digits in favor of Kansas City to single digits, despite them playing at home.

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