Breaking down AFC East odds following the 2020 NFL Draft

The 2020 NFL Draft is complete, and with it closes the busiest part of the NFL offseason. Plenty of transactions will happen between now and the start of training camp, but most of the offseason’s roster moves are complete. For the AFC East, the departure of Tom Brady was a seismic decision that was not shocking, but still could change everything. The Bills will look to take advantage of the opportunity that is now available, adding Stefon Diggs in a huge pre-draft trade.

Back in February, DraftKings Sportsbook released divisional odds, and the New England Patriots were sizable favorites, with the Buffalo Bills clearly second, and then the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets following. We had updated odds following Brady’s departure that saw things tighten up further. The odds have since been updated to reflect additional free agency and draft roster changes, and we’re here to break them down along with noting key additions and departures (*=rookie)

New England Patriots (Feb: -400, Post-draft: +115)

Notable additions: QB Brian Hoyer, WR Marqise Lee, S Kyle Ugger*, DE Josh Uche*
Notable departures: QB Tom Brady, OLB Kyle Van Noy, S Duron Harmon, DT Danny Shelton, TE Rob Gronkowski (sort of)

Tom Brady left town, and for the time being, Jarrett Stidham is the front-runner for the starting quarterback job. Brian Hoyer will compete with him, but the Patriots decision-making this offseason would seem to indicate they want to see if Stidham can be Brady’s replacement. Even with such a huge question, they remain favorites in the division. Considering Matt Cassel performed well for a season in place of Brady, the odds suggest Bill Belichick will get the benefit of the doubt for the time being.

Buffalo Bills (Feb: +450, Post-draft: +160)

Notable additions: WR Stefon Diggs, CB Josh Norman, OLB Mario Addison, DE A.J. Epenesa*, RB Zack Moss*
Notable departures: RB Frank Gore, DT Jordan Phillips, DE Shaq Lawson

The Bills impressed last season, and with Tom Brady departing the division, they look ready to challenge the Patriots atop the AFC East. The Diggs trade and the addition of Moss makes Buffalo’s offense the best in the division. Josh Allen took a step forward in his second year, and the pressure will be on for a bigger third year. They made some helpful additions as well on defense, but the big story this year will be where this offense can take them. They remain behind the Patriots in the odds because, as mentioned above, Belichick gets the benefit of the doubt for the time being.

Miami Dolphins (Feb: +1400, Post-draft: +700)

Notable additions: QB Tua Tagovailoa*, OT Austin Jackson*, CB Noah Igbinoghene*, OG Robert Hunt*, CB Byron Jones, RB Jordan Howard, RB Matt Breida, OG Ereck Flowers, OLB Kyle Van Noy, C Ted Karras
Notable departures: C Evan Boehm, CB Aqib Talib

It’s been an incredibly busy offseason for the Dolphins. They entered the 2019 season looking like they were taking for the top pick, and while they did not end up with the No. 1 pick, they still got a potential franchise quarterback. Miami boosted their secondary with the addition of Jones, overhauled its offensive line, and upgraded at running back by signing Howard and trading for Breida. Their odds improved t0 +900 with the departure of Brady, and then to +700 with their offseason additions. They’re clearly behind the Patriots and Bills for now, but they’ll be worth watching.

New York Jets (Feb: +1800, Post-draft: +700)

Notable additions: OT Mekhi Becton*, WR Denzel Mims*, CB Pierre Desir, OT George Fant, WR Breshad Perriman
Notable departures: WR Robby Anderson, CB Darryl Roberts

The Jets are a tough team to figure out. They went into 2019 with decent expectations, but didn’t count on Sam Darnold coming down with mono. He heads into 2020 without arguably his most dynamic pass catcher thanks to Robby Anderson signing with the Panthers. Breshad Perriman is a decent enough receiver, and joins a depth chart that includes Jamison Crowder, Quincy Enunwy, and draft pick Denzel Mims. Without any other upgrades, Mims should get a lot of opportunities in the passing game. The Jets’ odds got a big boost with Brady’s departure, and another modest improvement with the addition of Bekton and Mims. They are in the same clump as Miami for the time being.

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