Offensive Rookie of the Year odds and predictions heading into NFL Draft

As we get set for the 2020 NFL draft, it is a good time to take a look at the odds for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. As you peruse this year’s odds at DraftKings Sportsbook, you’ll notice that quarterbacks and running backs dominate the favorites with five running backs and two quarterbacks in the Top-7. Even in a year with one of the best receiver drafts in a long while, it holds true that QBs and RBs are the most likely positions to win OROY, as wide receivers have won three times since 2000, running backs have won nine times and quarterbacks have won eight times.

We’ll update the odds following the NFL Draft. We don’t expect significant changes, but if a player slips or climbs more than expected, odds could shift.

Favorites

Joe Burrow, +250

Burrow is locked into that first pick as much as he can be at this point and that means we can bet on him knowing he’ll play for the Bengals and start from Day 1. He is also the favorite to win by a lot, as D’Andre Swift is next at +700.

Burrow is the safest bet due to him being the only quarterback we can count on starting — which gives him a big leg up. Kyler Murray won the award last season despite his team winning just five games and him throwing 20 touchdowns to 12 interceptions and adding 309 yards rushing and one touchdown on the ground. Burrow could easily hit better numbers in an offense that has A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, and Joe Mixon as long as they get back offensive lineman Jonah Williams and add some more bodies in the draft, Burrow is ready to succeed early in his career.

D’Andre Swift, +700

Swift is the favorite to be the first running back off the board and that means he will likely land somewhere he can start right away. He’s also set up well to be the every-down back, giving him plenty of touches, including receptions, which will probably be needed to see 250+ touches on a team that isn’t going to have leads late in games.

Sleepers

Zack Moss, +2000

For value, I’d want to go with running backs, as I like the depth the position has in this draft and making the leap to the NFL isn’t as difficult as other positions. One of the bigger adjustments for some college running backs is pass protection and Moss is one of the better blockers in the draft, which should get him on the field early. He’ll need to land somewhere without a strong every-down back, but as long as he gets a shot, I like his odds to beat out lesser competition.

A.J. Dillon, +10000

Much will depend on where Dillon goes in the draft, which is true for all rookies, but he could land behind an established back the further he falls in the draft. Teams might be concerned about his big workload in college but that also means he is ready to take on a big workload in the NFL early on. Dillon can be the early down back for any team right now and succeed from Day 1.

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