NFL mock draft based on betting odds

The 2020 NFL Draft kicks off in less than 12 hours, and LSU quarterback Joe Burrow will be the No. 1 overall pick. The Cincinnati Bengals are not publicly saying, but it’s become obvious, and now we have a local report saying they have already informed Burrow he’s their guy.

After that, Chase Young is likely going No. 2 to Washington, and then things start to open up. The Detroit Lions are viewed by many as a strong candidate to trade out of the third spot if the right deal comes along. And if not, they have some defensive options to consider with the pick.

There are a host of mock drafts available to get ready for Thursday night, and you can view a host of them at SB Nation’s mock draft database. We’re going to offer a different kind of mock draft. On Tuesday, we put together a top 10 mock draft based on how the public is betting a variety of odds at DraftKings Sportsbook.

The sportsbook is offering hundreds of wagering opportunities for the 2020 NFL Draft. You can bet on everything from who will go No. 1 to what position will be the last pick as Mr. Irrelevant.

We’re going through the odds and utilizing favorites to figure out a mock draft. Additionally, we’re including an alternate or two for each pick based on the whatever position is second or third highest on odds. We are not including an alternate for the Bengals or Washington given the nature of Burrow and Young odds.

1. Cincinnati Bengals — Joe Burrow, QB, LSU

You can still bet on who will go No. 1 overall, but there’s a reason Burrow is -10000 as of this article publishing. You’re throwing money away betting on anybody else.

2. Washington — Chase Young, DE, Ohio State

The odds for No. 2 overall are not as crazy as No. 1, but they’re sizable for Young. He is a -2000 favorite, followed by Tua Tagovailoa at +1200 and Justin Herbert at +1600. There is talk teams have reached out to Washington, but barring a godfather offer, it’s going to be Young at No. 2.

3. Detroit Lions — Jeffrey Okudah, CB, Ohio State

We are not projecting trades, but that is what could shake this up. The third overall odds are topped by Okudah and Tagovailoa, who are tied at +225. They’re followed by Justin Herbert at +400 and then Derrick Brown at +600. Cornerback tops their positional odds, followed by defensive line at +225.

Alternate: Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn

4. New York Giants — Jedrick Wills, OT, Alabama

You can bet specifically on who the Giants will pick with their first draft pick (covering even a potential trade). Wills is the favorite at even money, followed by Tristan Wirfs at +300, Isaiah Simmons at +500, and Andrew Thomas at +700.

Alternate: Tristan Wirfs, OL, Iowa; Isaiah Simmons, LB, Clemson

5. Miami Dolphins — Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama

This is where it gets interesting at the quarterback position. The Dolphins are rumored to actually be looking to move up to No. 3 to draft an offensive tackle, but that could very well be a smokescreen. DK Sportsbook offers odds on position of a team’s first pick, and for the Dolphins, quarterback is a sizable favorite at -400. With Burrow gone, Tagovailoa is currently leading for odds of being the second quarterback off the board. He’s at -167, followed by Justin Herbert at +115. This set odds has been a see-saw with Tagovailoa the leader when the odds opened, Herbert taking the lead earlier this week, and now Tagovailoa back on top.

Alternate: Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon; Tristan Wirfs, OT, Iowa

6. Los Angeles Chargers — Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon

This is similar to the Dolphins. Quarterback is -400 for the Chargers first pick, and Herbert tops odds for third QB off the board at -134 — while Tagovailoa sits at +115.

Alternate: Tristan Wirfs, OT, Iowa

7. Carolina Panthers — Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn

The odds have the Panthers looking defense with their first pick. Defensive line leads at +150, followed by linebacker at +200, and cornerback at +225. You can bet on which defensive linemen will go first and second, and with Chase Young expected to go No. 2, Brown is the favorite to be the second defensive lineman off the board at -305.

Alternate: Isaiah Simmons, LB, Clemson

8. Arizona Cardinals — Tristan Wirfs, OT, Iowa

The Cardinals could use some line help to protect Kyler Murray, so it’s no surprise OL is the favorite for the Cardinals first pick. It sits at -143, with cornerback and wide receiver a distant second at +400. Wills is the favorite for first lineman off the board but he went to the Giants earlier. No. 2 on the odds board is Wirfs at +200, followed by Andrew Thomas at +400.

Alternate: C.J. Henderson, CB, Florida

9. Jacksonville Jaguars — Javon Kinlaw, DT, South Carolina

Our betting handle mock draft had the Jaguars picking WR Jerry Jeudy, but the odds say the trenches are where to look. DL is favored at +250, followed by OL at +300. Kinlaw is third on odds for DL off the board, so he’s our guy. It seems a bit of a reach, but he’s showing up on SB Nation’s mock draft database as the second most picked Jaguars option.

Alternate: Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia

10. Cleveland Browns — Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia

Mock drafts are nearly unanimous in sending an offensive tackle Cleveland’s way, and the odds reflect that. OL is -200, while the next closest is DL at +450. With Wills and Wirfs off the board, Andrew Thomas has the next best odds at +400.

Alternate: Mekhi Becton, OT, Louisville; K’Lavon Chaisson, Edge, LSU

11. New York Jets — CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma

DK Sportsbook offers odds on the Jets first pick of the draft, and Lamb is the favorite at +350. Fellow receiver Jerry Jeudy is next at +500, followed by offensive tackles Mekhi Becton (+600) and Andrew Thomas (+700).

Alternate: Jerry Jeudy, OL, Alabama; Mekhi Becton, OT, Louisville

12. Las Vegas Raiders — Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama +110

Wide receiver is the favored position for the Raiders first pick, at -167. Las Vegas has a host of needs and two first round picks, so they could go against the grain here. Jeudy and Lamb are tied atop the WR odds at +110, followed by Henry Ruggs III at +300.

Alternate: C.J. Henderson, CB, Florida

13. San Francisco 49ers — Henry Ruggs III, WR, Alabama

The 49ers are a strong candidate to trade down, and it seems unlikely we see three straight receivers go here, but that’s what it is. WR is the 49ers favorite at -177, followed by defensive line at +300. Ruggs is third on the list of odds, with a wide gulf before the next chunk of receivers.

Alternate: Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU; K’Lavon Chaisson, Edge, LSU

14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Mekhi Becton, OT, Louisville

The Buccaneers have loaded up on offense, but even with defense a big need, offensive line is listed as the favorite for them at -400. Becton is the last of the first four in OL odds, and then we get a big gulf to Austin Jackson, Josh Jones, and others.

Alternate: Josh Jones, OT, Houston; K’Lavon Chaisson, Edge, LSU

15. Denver Broncos — Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU

We start to get a little crazier here. The Broncos are listed with WR as the biggest need at -200, followed by defensive line at +400. We only have odds on first receiver to go, so we’ll continue down that group. Jefferson is +5000 to be the first receiver taken. Nobody expects that, but what about going in the top half of the first round? It seems unlikely, but we’re just following the numbers!

Alternate: Tee Higgins, WR, Clemson; K’Lavon Chaisson, Edge, LSU

16. Atlanta Falcons — C.J. Henderson, CB, Florida

The Falcons have solid depth on offense, so it’s no surprise the top three odds for first Falcons pick is on defense. Cornerback leads the way at -167, followed by defensive line at +175. After Okudah, it’s a sizable drop to the next group, and Henderson gets the nod with the best odds of being the second cornerback off the board at -500.

Alternate: A.J. Terrell, CB, Clemson; K’Lavon Chaisson, Edge, LSU

17. Dallas Cowboys — A.J. Terrell, CB, Clemson

The Cowboys have a similar set of odds as the Falcons, with cornerback leading the way at +175, followed by defensive line at +200. Terrell follows Henderson on second CB off the board at +700.

Alternate: Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU; K’Lavon Chaisson, Edge, LSU

18. Miami Dolphins — Josh Jones, OT, Houston

The Dolphins had QB as the favorite for their first pick, and that is followed by offensive line at +300. We can pick between Jones, Austin Jackson, and Isaiah Wilson, all of whom sit at +10000 to go first among linemen. Jones is showing up in Dolphins’ mocks, so he’s our guy.

Alternate:

19. Las Vegas Raiders — Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU

Cornerback is next for Raiders with WR off the board in their first go-around. Cornerback sits at +300, ahead of quarterback at +500. Fulton follows Terrell on second off the board odds at +2000.

Alternate: Jordan Love, QB, Utah State

20. Jacksonville Jaguars — Austin Jackson, OT, USC

Having gone DL with their first pick, the Jaguars next best odds OL at +300. Jackson gets the nod with the next best odds, and while it seems unlikely, the Jaguars could surprise us. Cornerback and quarterback both follow at +350.

Alternate: Trevon Diggs, CB, Alabama; Jordan Love, QB, Utah State

21. Philadelphia Eagles — Tee Higgins, WR, Clemson

The Eagles are favored at -200 to grab a wide receiver with their first pick, followed by cornerback or linebacker at +450. There is talk they might be interested in Jalen Reagor, but the odds say Higgins.

Alternate: Trevon Diggs, CB, Alabama; Kenneth Murray, LB, Oklahoma

22. Minnesota Vikings — Trevon Diggs, CB, Alabama

Cornerback gets the slightly favored status at -110, followed by WR at +250. Diggs is the next best on the cornerback odds board.

Alternate: Denzel Mims, WR, Baylor

23. New England Patriots — Isaiah Simmons, LB, Clemson

This is where the odds get screwy. Simmons seems certain to go in the top ten picks, but when you go just by odds, we end up with this. The Patriots’ top position at DK Sportsbook is linebacker, listed at +300. That is followed by quarterback at +350.

Alternate: Jordan Love, QB, Utah State

24. New Orleans Saints — Denzel Mims, WR, Baylor

It’s rather odd wide receiver is the favorite at +200 — ahead of linebacker (+250) considering they signed Emmanuel Sanders this offseason. Sanders is no spring chicken opposite Michael Thomas, so it makes sense they might look for some depth. I personally think they look for a wide receiver on day two.

Alternate: Patrick Queen, LB, LSU

25. Minnesota Vikings — Jalen Reagor, WR, TCU

The second highest position on their odds is wide receiver at +250. That’s followed by offensive line at +300. Considering they just traded Stefon Diggs, adding a pass catcher makes sense.

Alternate: Isaiah Wilson, OT, Georgia

26. Miami Dolphins — Jeff Gladney, CB, TCU

With QB and OL taken care of, there are a host of positions tied here between CB, DL, and LB. We’ll go with Gladney for now, but this is a toss-up area.

Alternate: A.J. Epenesa, Edge, Iowa; Patrick Queen, LB, LSU

27. Seattle Seahawks — K’Lavon Chaisson, Edge, LSU

The Seahawks are all but certain to make a trade as that has become John Schneider’s first round MO. But either way, DL and OL are tied at +200 for their first pick.

Alternate: Isaiah Wilson, OT, Georgia

28. Baltimore Ravens — Patrick Queen, LB, LSU

The Ravens offense impressed last season, so it’s not surprising linebacker tops the odds at +200. That is followed by offensive line at +250.

Alternate: Isaiah Wilson, OT, Georgia

29. Tennessee Titans — Isaiah Wilson, OT, Georgia

The trenches are leading the way here with OL at +250 and DL at +275. The Titans could potentially go wide receiver here, but it makes sense to beef up protection or pressure on either side.

Alternate: Ross Blacklock, DT, TCU

30. Green Bay Packers — Brandon Aiyuk, WR, Arizona State

The Packers need pass catchers in a big way, so it’s no surprise WR leads their odds at +150. It’s followed by linebacker at +400 and offensive lineman at +450.

Alternate: Zack Baun, LB, Wisconsin

31. San Francisco 49ers — Ross Blacklock, DT, TCU

The 49ers are a decent bet to deal out of at least one of their first round picks. If they stick with the pick, defensive line at +300 makes sense as they need to replace DeForest Buckner. Offensive line and cornerback follow that at +700.

Alternate: Ezra Cleveland, OT, Boise State

32. Kansas City Chiefs — Jaylon Johnson, CB, Utah

The Chiefs need to improve their defense in a big way, so it’s no surprise their top three positions by odds are cornerback (+200), linebacker (+300), and defensive lineman (+400).

Alternate: Malik Harrison, LB, Ohio State

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