Why Alvin Kamara will go under his rushing yards total in 2020

New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara had a down year in 2019 after notching 883 rushing yards, 709 passing yards, and 18 total touchdowns in 2018. Last season, he rushed for 797 yards and five scores while also tallying 553 receiving yards.

Kamara is a versatile offensive weapon, but will he be able to keep producing at such a high rate on the ground and through the air moving forward? DraftKings Sportsbook set his over/under for total rushing yards at 850.5 ahead of the 2020 season. We break down his chances to reach that mark here.

Prediction: Under 850.5

Kamara will be the Saints’ primary back in 2020, but he’ll be backed up by Latavius Murray for a second straight season. Murray logged 146 carries and rushed for 637 yards last season and should continue to be a factor in the backfield moving forward. It’s hard to see Kamara eclipsing 850 rushing yards for the second time in his career next season unless he records more than the 171 carries he got last season.

New Orleans threw the ball less than usual during the five-game stretch Drew Brees missed. Kamara had tallied his three highest marks for single-game rushing attempts during that period. Now Brees could be entering his final NFL season. I see the Saints leaning on Brees and the aerial attack more in 2020. Especially now that they’ve added Emmanuel Sanders. Kamara could still stuff the stat sheet, but don’t expect him to run for a career high.

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