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Why Aaron Jones will go under his rushing yardage total in 2020

Aaron Jones had a huge breakthrough in 2019. We break down what to expect in 2020 vs. his offseason rushing odds.

Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones is tackled by Seattle Seahawks nose tackle Bryan Mone in the second quarter of a NFC Divisional Round playoff football game at Lambeau Field. Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones had a breakout season as the team’s workhorse running back. Jamaal Williams pushed him at times, but Jones was the go-to guy for fantasy football owners. He surpassed 1,000 yards for the first time in his career, but his fantasy value came from finding the end zone an eye-popping 19 total times, including 16 on the ground. He also saw a sizable boost in passing game work, turning him into a top three back.

As the 2020 NFL Draft nears, DraftKings Sportsbook has given us over/under totals on passing, receiving and rushing yards for individual players. Jones’ over/under for rushing yards in 2020 is set at 1,080.5.

Prediction: Under 1,080.5

Aaron Jones could have another strong season in 2020, but coming in under this number would not be an indictment of him. Jones played a full 16-game slate for the first time in his three-year career, and Jamaal Williams missed two full games and most of a third due to injury.

Injuries are unpredictable, so that aside, there are two reasons to bet the under on Jones. The first is if we see 16 full games of Williams. He had five games of double digit carries, two of which were more carries than Jones. I expect Jones to get the larger total carries by season’s end, but look for a balanced approach with Williams to cost Jones overall.

The second reason is the improvement in the rest of the offense. A second season of Matt LaFleur working with Aaron Rodgers could be a boon for the passing game. That could benefit the run game as a whole, but I go back to the first point of Williams’ involvement in the backfield. Jones should have a strong season, but I don’t see him going over 1,080.5 rushing yards.

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