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Why Aaron Rodgers should go over his passing yardage total in 2020

Aaron Rodgers did not have quite the season people might have expected in Matt LaFleur’s debut as head coach. We break down why he should improve in 2020.

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers throws a pass against the San Francisco 49ers in the second quarter of the NFC Championship Game at Levi’s Stadium. Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers had an up-and-down 2019 season. He surpassed 4,000 passing yards and had 26 touchdowns to only four interceptions, but it was arguably his worst healthy season since 2015. He finished the season with 4,002 yards on 7.0 yards per attempt, 26 touchdowns and four interceptions, and a 95.4 passer rating.

As the 2020 NFL Draft nears, DraftKings Sportsbook has unveiled passing yardage totals, for which you can bet the over or under. For Rodgers, the over/under is set at 4,050.5.

Prediction: Over 4,050.5

Rodgers played all 16 games, but his top receiver, Davante Adams, missed four games with a turf toe injury. Rodgers put up solid enough numbers in his absence, with his highest single game total for 2019, and another in the top four. That being said, I suspect he might have cracked 4,050 yards with 16 games of Adams.

More importantly, I suspect we see the Packers add a pass catcher in what is a deep class for the wide receiver position. Adams finished the season with 83 receptions for 997 yards. The next closest pass catchers were wide receiver Allen Lazard (477 yards), running back Aaron Jones (474 yards), wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling (452 yards), and tight end Jimmy Graham (447 yards).

The Packers did not re-sign Graham, so they could also look to find some competition for Marcedes Lewis, Robert Tonyan, and Jace Sternberger.

Additional talent will be key, but we should see some improvement as well in a second season with head coach Matt LaFleur and offense coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. It’s not guaranteed, but after an up-and-down first season, look for the offense to improve. It should be enough to get Rodgers over 4,050 yards.

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