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UPDATE APRIL 16: A week later, Miami has shot to the top of the board for most money bet on as Tua Tagovailoa’s landing spot. 26 percent of total handle is on Miami, which is the favorite at +125. Detroit and Washington are next at 19 percent and 18 percent, respectively, followed by New England (9 percent) and the Los Angeles Chargers (7 percent).
There is speculation the Dolphins might not even go quarterback at the No. 5 spot, but that could also be an attempt to lure someone in for a trade. The most intriguing spot is the No. 3 pick. The Lions currently hold it, but there are significant rumors they will trade out of the spot if the right offer comes along. A QB-hungry team might be prepared to leap up to grab Tua. The big question for him is the medical report. If teams are uncomfortable with him, he could slip down the board and maybe we see a wild card grab him.
The Cincinnati Bengals are expected to draft LSU quarterback Joe Burrow with the No. 1 overall pick of the 2020 NFL Draft on April 23rd. After that, uncertainty reigns. Ohio State defensive end Chase Young is a decent bet to go No. 2 to Washington, but even that is not entirely clear — and the betting public is backing that notion.
DraftKings Sportsbook is offering odds on where prospects will land, and is offering some specific odds for a handful of top prospects, including Young, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, and Jordan Love. More specifically, you can bet on which specific team will draft them.
DK Sportsbook released an update on Friday listing out the top five teams in terms of handle bet on them drafting Tagovailoa. They are ranked as follows:
Washington (+1200): 34.4%
Miami Dolphins (+100): 24.8%
Los Angeles Chargers (+150): 9.8%
New England Patriots (+1600): 9.6%
Detroit Lions (+2500): 5.6%
The Dolphins and Chargers are heavy favorites with the fifth and sixth picks, respectively. Washington has the second overall pick, and if they wanted a quarterback after Burrow, they’d have their choice. But does Ron Rivera want to completely revamp, or is he comfortable sticking with 2019 first round pick Dwayne Haskins? We saw the Arizona Cardinals and new head coach Kliff Kingsbury willing to jump ship on Josh Rosen in a hurry to draft Kyler Murray, so I don’t think we should be all that shocked if it happens.
There’s no real value at this point on betting the Dolphins or Chargers. Dolphins at even money is probably the most likely to hit, but if the Lions trade out of the third spot or the Dolphins decide they don’t like Tagovailoa’s injury history, that changes in a hurry — and both are realistic possibilities.
At 12/1, Washington makes some sense, even with Haskins only a recent addition. I personally am not going to wager on that one, but of the picks getting the most action right now, I can see the value.
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