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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are set to sign future Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady, and everything is turning up roses for them. They saw a huge spike in season ticket sales on Tuesday, and their chances of playing in Super Bowl 55 got a huge boost.
DraftKings Sportsbook has updated their various NFL odds, and the Bucs saw boosts across the board. If you think the Bucs are in line for a big improvement, there is some value here. If you think this is going to be closer to Joe Namath spending his last year with the Los Angeles Rams, maybe you fade them. I think Brady and Arians can make some magic for at least one season, but there’s reason to have some doubt.
Super Bowl odds: +4000 to +2000
The Bucs opened the offseason at +5000 to win Super Bowl 55, and improved to +4000 as rumors circulated early in the offseason that Brady might be interested in joining the team. Once Adam Schefter and Jeff Darlington reported the signing was going to happen, the team improved to +2000.
Brady joins a roster that has more wide receiver depth than he has had in New England in a long time. There are also rumors the team might make a move for Todd Gurley and some additional receiver help. The Patriots had the top-ranked defense last year, but the Bucs were not far behind, ranked fifth overall. The unit will retain edge rusher Shaq Barrett under the franchise tag, and hope to add some more depth in the upcoming draft.
NFC Championship odds: +2000 to +1000
The 49ers, Saints, Cowboys, and Eagles all have better odds than Tampa Bay, and the Bucs are even with the Seahawks. If Brady has something left in the tank, the Bucs become a strong value bet. Barring any injuries during the offseason, these odds will continue to improve before the start of training camp.
NFC South odds: +500 to +170
The Saints remain the favorites at -110, but the Bucs have become the clear No. 2 for now. The Falcons remain a team to watch if they can get healthy, but after last year’s disastrous season, it’s hard to get excited about them. Carolina is moving from Cam Newton to Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback, and lost cornerback James Bradberry in free agency. Bridgewater is a significant upgrade over what the Panthers rolled out last season after Newton got hurt, but he’s not an upgrade over a healthy Newton.
Win total: 7.5 to 9
The Bucs went 7-9 with Jameis Winston putting up the first 30/30 season in NFL history and a rather shaky run game. The Bucs last won nine games in 2016. This is a big bump, but Brady could be a big upgrade. Betting this comes down to what you think about the improvement Brady can bring. If you think he’s got one more year of value, bet the over. If you think this has the feel of Namath’s final season, fading them makes some sense.
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