Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves ($10,500) — Doncic is expected to return after missing Saturday’s game due to ankle soreness. Provided he is not limited, Doncic has a highly appealing matchup against a Timberwolves team that has been playing extremely fast recently, ranking second in pace since the trade deadline by playing about 106 possessions per game. Minnesota has combined poor defense with their electric pace, which has them allowing the most points to opponents since the trade deadline. Doncic is a candidate for boosted points and assists in this setting.
Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards vs. Milwaukee Bucks ($9,400) — The Bucks are outrageously strong defensively on a pace adjusted basis, but their fast pace can help make fantasy scoring play up for opponents a little more due to extra possessions. With both the Bucks and Wizards playing fast brands of basketball, this game is expected to be high-scoring, as DraftKings Sportsbook has given the game a high total points of 241. Despite the Bucks having a strong defense, Beal had fantasy success in this matchup previously on the back of huge volume, taking 31 shots in 37 minutes and scoring 60.5 DraftKings fantasy points (DKFP).
Kawhi Leonard, Los Angeles Clippers vs. Memphis Grizzlies ($9,700) — Paul George (hamstring) may remain out on Monday, and if George is out again, Leonard would have clearance for elite volume in a strong matchup. Leonard’s usage rate rises to an elite 35% in minutes with George off the court this season, up from 30% with George on the court. The Clippers face a Grizzlies team that has been playing lightning fast lately, leading the league in pace since the trade deadline. The fast pace could help create boosted possessions for Leonard to have more opportunities at fantasy scoring.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks at Washington Wizards ($11,400) — The Bucks have an elite matchup against a Wizards team that plays fast and has been the worst defensive team and worst rebounding team in the league, which could give Antetokounmpo massive triple-double upside in this matchup. The game is also expected to be high-scoring, as DraftKings Sportsbook has given the game a total points of 241. The downside is that there is blowout risk, as the Bucks are 11.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, so it’s possible Antetokounmpo does not see his normal amount of minutes. The fact that the game is taking place in Washington may help it stay close enough where Antetokounmpo’s minutes do not crater, as the Wizards have been much better in home games this season by point differential.
Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers vs. Atlanta Hawks ($9,500) — Embiid has a highly appealing matchup against a Hawks team that is poor defensively and poor on the glass, which is made even more appealing with Ben Simmons (back) out and Tobias Harris (knee) unlikely to play. Embiid’s usage rate sits at an elite 35% in minutes with Simmons off the court, a boost from 29% with Simmons on the court. The Hawks have allowed the second most points to opponents and rank as the league’s fourth worst rebounding team by the percentage of missed shots rebounded. The Hawks have also been poor defensively around the basket, allowing the second most field goals per game within five feet of the basket. Embiid has taken advantage of the plus matchup in two previous games this season, averaging 57 DKFP per game vs. the Hawks.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is timfinn521) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.