Breaking down Patrick Mahomes vs. Jimmy Garoppolo Super Bowl prop bets

A lot is being made of the QB matchup in the 2020 Super Bowl. Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is 46-for-70 for 615 yards with eight passing touchdowns and zero interceptions in the postseason, not to mention 15 carries for 106 yards and another touchdown. San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo hasn’t been asked to do a thing in the playoffs, going 17-for-27 for 208 yards with just one touchdown and one interception. But we enter this game with a fresh slate. Here’s a look at a couple edges in the Mahomes vs. Garoppolo market at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Player to record longest completed pass: Mahomes (-150)

This one seems fairly obvious. The Chiefs have the QB with the big arm, and the pass-catchers to go down field and catch the deep ball. Mahomes has completed a pass of at least 47 yards in three straight games, including a 60-yarder in his last game against Tennessee. Jimmy G’s long in the postseason is just a 30-yarder. Mahomes has started and finished 15 games this season, completing a pass of 40-plus yards in 11 of them. Garoppolo has accomplished that just seven times, despite playing in 18 games. You need to lay some juice on the -150, but I was expecting the odds to be closer to -200.

Player to have highest completion percentage: Garoppolo (+100)

The passing props would all seem to favor Mahomes, but the beauty of completion percentage is that it take volume out of the equation. If you matched up these two QBs in the championship round, Garoppolo would’ve cashed by going 6-for-8 (75%). Mahomes was spectacular, but his 23-for-35 (65.7%) wouldn’t have been enough. Garoppolo’s been pretty efficient this season, completing 68.8% of his passes. Of the 15 games Mahomes has started and finished, he only topped 68.8% five times. Mahomes wasn’t too far behind at 65.9% on the season, but Jimmy G topped that number in 13 games. In fact, Jimmy G has finished 10 games at better than 70%. I think the wrong QB is favored here, and I’ll take the even money.

Bet to fade: Player to have most passing yards

Is Mahomes going to have more yards than Garoppolo? Probably, but the -335 is too steep to play it. Maybe if you want to include this bet as a parlay piece, you could find some value, but betting it outright isn’t appealing to me. At the same time, I’m also not looking for the big payout and chasing Garoppolo at +255. The “who will have the most yards” prop has a fun feel to it that could make it the most popular of these bets. But the real value is looking into other props.

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