What polling tells us for the DraftKings Sportsbook Georgia Senate election runoff pools

The United States Senate runoffs in Georgia are likely very close, and the outcome will determine who controls one house of Congress for the next two years. The stakes could not be higher, with the agenda of President-elect Biden and the ability to make change through legislation on the line.

Right now the 117th Congress has 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats. If both the races in Georgia are won by Democrats Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, the tie-breaking vote in the Senate goes to Vice President-elect Kamala Harris. It’s a big, big deal.

And you can make your predictions below as part of DraftKings Sportsbook’s Georgia Senate Runoff Pool, where $1000 will be awarded to those that make the right calls on eight questions related to the outcome!

At FiveThirtyEight.com — which compiles the polls of several different sampling organizations — Ossoff currently leads Purdue by about 1%, and Warnock leads Loeffler by 1.9%. But what we’ve learned about polling from both the 2016 and 2020 elections is that it’s usually close (though sometimes not at all!) but not right on the nose. So both these races are clearly within the margin of error both ways.

Who will win their Georgia Senate runoff?

• David Perdue
• Jon Ossoff

Who will win their Georgia Senate runoff?

• Kelly Loeffler
• Raphael Warnock

Will Republicans have a majority in the Senate after the runoff?

• Yes
• No

We’re putting all of the above questions together. While there’s a slim chance the vote could be split (most likely with the Democrat Warnock and Republican Perdue winning according to polling), the overwhelming majority of ballots will be for one party or the other. If you like Perdue, you should probably Pick Loeffler as well. The same for Ossoff and Warnock.

Which Senate candidate will receive the highest number of votes?

• David Perdue
• Jon Ossoff
• Kelly Loeffler
• Raphael Warnock

This one’s a bit easier: It’s either Warnock or Perdue, as Loeffler is less popular on the Republican side, and Ossoff is on the Democratic side.

Will any Senate candidate concede before 1 p.m. on 1/6?

• Yes
• No

Here’s one thing we do know: This is going to take awhile. It seems very unlikely any of these candidates would make an early concession, particularly if it’s on the Republican side.

Will any Senate candidate receive over 55% of the vote?

• Yes
• No

The biggest lock of this entire contest. Both races have only two candidates, as there’s no write-ins, no smaller parties... just four names for two Senate seats. And there’s about a 0.0% chance one of them wins by 10 points.

Which Republican candidate will receive more votes?

• David Perdue
• Kelly Loeffler

By the polling, Perdue is nominally more popular than Loeffler amongst the general population of Georgia.

Which Democrat candidate will receive more votes?

• Jon Ossoff
• Raphael Warnock

Same answer here as above, with the Reverend Warnock microscopically ahead of Ossoff in general opinion samples.