/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/68448122/1229057729.0.jpg)
Hello fantasy footballers! Today we will look at tight end strength of schedule for the fantasy playoffs. Hopefully these numbers will help us make some trades or pickups that might help us navigate our playoffs.
For this endeavor, we’ll look at Weeks 14, 15, 16. Those are the most prominent weeks for most leagues, but your mileage may vary. We’ll be using Football Outsider’s defensive DVOA and Adjusted Fantasy Points allowed by position to gauge which tight ends should have the easiest and toughest matchups in your quest for a championship.
Below we have a chart with matchups for Week 14-16 based on fantasy points allowed per game to tight ends on the left and pass defense DVOA from Football Outsiders on the right. Both stats have merit in evaluating matchups, but I will highlight a few where the two stats mesh and meet the eye test.
Easy TE playoff schedules
Noah Fant, Denver Broncos
Playoff schedule: @CAR, BUF, @LAC
Trying to find matchup statistics for tight ends is tough and the DVOA numbers verses the fantasy numbers are wildly different, as there just aren’t as many tight end targets and touches to learn from. So for these, I really rather look at the positive matchups versus the negative ones. One of those tight ends with positive matchups on the horizon is Noah Fant. Fant has teased us this season, as he’s getting good looks when healthy and it’s easy to see his upside. And now he might finally be set up for a nice run, as Drew Lock returns this week and Fant is finally healthy.
Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens
Playoff schedule: @CLE, JAX, NYG
Andrews has been getting more targets of late and as soon as he and Lamar Jackson get off the Covid-19 list, I expect they’ll get that connection going again. And when you check out their matchups, I expect Andrews is on some championship teams when it’s all over.
Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Playoff schedule: MIN, @ATL, @DET
The Buccaneers have a great fantasy playoff schedule, but a lot of mouths to feed. The good news is that Tom Brady has been looking for Gronkowski often, including in the red zone. It hasn’t been smooth sailing for Brady and the Bucs, but they have shown some great upside and they’ve gotten better as the season has gone along. That sets up for a strong finish.
Tough TE playoff schedules
Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders
Playoff schedule: IND, LAC, MIA
As I said earlier, I’m not going to worry too much about good tight ends in tough matchups. The position is weak and if a tight end is getting targets like a Top 10 fantasy tight end, you thank your lucky stars. That goes for Waller, who I would take over the bulk of the tight ends in most matchups. But, I would take Mark Andrews over Waller, which is something that you might be able to pull off.
TE Fantasy Playoff SOS
TEAM | 14 | 15 | 16 | AdjFPA (avg) | TEAM | 14 | 15 | 16 | DVOA (avg) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TEAM | 14 | 15 | 16 | AdjFPA (avg) | TEAM | 14 | 15 | 16 | DVOA (avg) |
DEN | 16 | 30 | 31 | 25.7 | LAR | 31 | 32 | 27 | 30.0 |
ATL | 31 | 20 | 21 | 24.0 | BAL | 15 | 30 | 29 | 24.7 |
PIT | 30 | 27 | 6 | 21.0 | TEN | 30 | 23 | 19 | 24.0 |
JAX | 25 | 14 | 22 | 20.3 | CLE | 9 | 29 | 32 | 23.3 |
NYG | 17 | 29 | 14 | 20.0 | GB | 23 | 21 | 25 | 23.0 |
NE | 19 | 10 | 30 | 19.7 | CHI | 24 | 12 | 30 | 22.0 |
BAL | 29 | 23 | 7 | 19.7 | ARI | 29 | 20 | 17 | 22.0 |
TB | 12 | 32 | 13 | 19.0 | WSH | 17 | 27 | 21 | 21.7 |
NO | 24 | 21 | 12 | 19.0 | DAL | 28 | 17 | 20 | 21.7 |
SF | 11 | 28 | 17 | 18.7 | TB | 12 | 26 | 23 | 20.3 |
NYJ | 8 | 19 | 29 | 18.7 | MIA | 10 | 31 | 18 | 19.7 |
SEA | 26 | 11 | 19 | 18.7 | LAC | 26 | 18 | 8 | 17.3 |
DAL | 27 | 5 | 24 | 18.7 | DEN | 21 | 14 | 16 | 17.0 |
HOU | 22 | 6 | 27 | 18.3 | NYJ | 27 | 7 | 15 | 16.3 |
PHI | 9 | 17 | 28 | 18.0 | PIT | 14 | 28 | 6 | 16.0 |
GB | 13 | 16 | 25 | 18.0 | CIN | 22 | 1 | 24 | 15.7 |
CHI | 18 | 12 | 23 | 17.7 | DET | 19 | 25 | 2 | 15.3 |
KC | 10 | 9 | 32 | 17.0 | SEA | 32 | 4 | 7 | 14.3 |
MIN | 20 | 22 | 9 | 17.0 | IND | 18 | 24 | 1 | 14.3 |
LAC | 32 | 15 | 2 | 16.3 | KC | 11 | 5 | 26 | 14.0 |
DET | 4 | 25 | 20 | 16.3 | NO | 20 | 10 | 12 | 14.0 |
CIN | 28 | 1 | 18 | 15.7 | PHI | 5 | 13 | 22 | 13.3 |
LV | 6 | 31 | 10 | 15.7 | BUF | 1 | 8 | 31 | 13.3 |
CLE | 14 | 7 | 26 | 15.7 | SF | 4 | 22 | 13 | 13.0 |
TEN | 23 | 13 | 4 | 13.3 | NYG | 13 | 15 | 9 | 12.3 |
MIA | 21 | 3 | 15 | 13.0 | JAX | 25 | 9 | 3 | 12.3 |
LAR | 3 | 26 | 8 | 12.3 | HOU | 3 | 6 | 28 | 12.3 |
ARI | 7 | 24 | 5 | 12.0 | LV | 6 | 16 | 11 | 11.0 |
IND | 15 | 18 | 1 | 11.3 | NE | 7 | 11 | 14 | 10.7 |
WSH | 5 | 8 | 16 | 9.7 | CAR | 8 | 19 | 4 | 10.3 |
CAR | 2 | 4 | 11 | 5.7 | ATL | 16 | 2 | 10 | 9.3 |
BUF | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2.0 | MIN | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3.3 |