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Patrick Mahomes leads NFL MVP odds, but Aaron Rodgers still has a shot

Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers are the two biggest favorites to win the award, who will emerge the MVP in the end?

NFL: Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

With just two games remaining in what has been an extremely interesting season, two familiar names lead the MVP race: Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers. While Mahomes is the clear favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-400), Rodgers (+400) still poses a threat to Mahomes bettors. Let’s take a quick look at the stat comparisons to this point.

Stat Breakdown

Mahomes has the edge in traditional counting stats — including passing yards and completions — leading the league with 328 more yards than the next closest passer (Deshaun Watson). Meanwhile, Rodgers has the TD-lead with 40 passing scores, four more than Mahomes.

From a more advanced level, both have a lead in a given metric. Rodgers is first in the league in EPA + CPOE composite (expected points added + completion percentage over expectation) and Mahomes is third, just behind Ryan Tannehill. In Football Outsiders stats, Mahomes ranks first in DYAR and DVOA, with Rodgers second.

The Kansas City Chiefs have been dominant this season, with a chance to go 15-1 in the regular season. The Green Bay Packers, on the other hand, are 11-3 and will be looking to shoe up the first round bye with two more wins to end the season. In any case, both teams will be going full force to the finish line, which means either quarterback could emerge as the MVP. At this stage, it’s obviously pointless to place money on Mahomes to win since he’s such a heavy favorite. Those odds for Rodgers are extremely tempting, considering he is still very much in the race.

Chiefs remaining schedule: Falcons and Chargers
Packers remaining schedule: Titans and Bears