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How public is betting and DFS considerations for Marlon Moraes vs. Rob Font

Marlon Moraes and Rob Font meet at bantamweight during UFC Fight Night on December 19th. We break down how the betting public is picking the fight and the DFS pricing from DraftKings.

Marlon Moraes of Brazil lands a spinning backfist against Cory Sandhagen in their bantamweight bout during the UFC Fight Night event inside Flash Forum on UFC Fight Island on October 11, 2020 in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

In a main card bantamweight match for UFC Fight Night, Marlon Moraes will face Rob Font on Saturday live from Las Vegas and available on ESPN+.

Moraes, the division’s No. 3 seed, heads to the octagon as the favorite with a professional record of 23-7-1. His last fight ended in a loss to Cory Sandhagen at UFC Fight Night via TKO this past October. The bout before that, Moraes defeated former UFC Featherweight Champion Jose Aldo by split decision.

“Magic” Moraes connects on just 35 percent of his strikes but has 10 wins by knockout. He lands 3.23 significant strikes per-minute, while defending 66 percent of them and absorbing 2.60 per-minute. Of his five UFC wins (5-2), two have come by knockout and one by submission.

Font enters the APEX as the underdog, as this is his first fight in over a year due to a torn ACL that he unknowingly suffered in his December 7, 2019 win by unanimous decision over Ricky Simon at UFC on ESPN 7. Font lands an impressive 5.11 significant strikes per minute, but takes in a 3.89 average per minute as well. Though he only defends 50 percent of takedowns, Moraes averages just 0.43 takedowns per 15 minutes. Font is more accurate overall in terms of striking, connecting on 41 percent of attempts.

Here are the odds and betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook for Marlon Moraes vs. Rob Font at UFC Fight Night on December 19th.

Odds and Betting splits

Marlon Moraes: -155 (48% of action, 79% of bets)
Rob Font: +125 (52% of action, 21% of bets)

DraftKings DFS Values

Marlon Moraes: $9,000
Rob Font: $7,200

Despite averaging 64.8 fantasy points and just 37.33 in his last three fights, Moraes has one of the highest salaries of the night. It’s fair to assume that fighting Font, who is coming off of an ACL injury and is in his first fight in 378 days, is a factor for it. Font is priced as the fourth-lowest play of the night and is getting less than a quarter of all bets even when drawing more action. Though he’s averaged 80.6 points, I would fade Font for this fight both DFS and betting-wise and would fade playing Moraes in DFS at such a high price when you can find value elsewhere. But would consider “Magic” as a moneyline bettor.

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