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How public is betting and DFS considerations for Jose Aldo vs. Marlon Vera

Jose Aldo vs. Marlon Vera meet at bantamweight during UFC Fight Night on December 19th. We break down how the betting public is picking the fight and the DFS pricing from DraftKings.

Jose Aldo poses for a portrait during a UFC photo session on December 16, 2020 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

In a bantamweight bout for UFC Fight Night 183, Jose Aldo will take on Marlon Vera in the co-main event Saturday live from Las Vegas and available on ESPN+.

The 34-year-old Aldo enters this contest as the favorite, despite being on a three-match losing streak. He has a professional fighting record of 28-7, and “Junior” Aldo last fought at UFC 251 in July where he lost to Petr Yan in Round 1 by TKO.

The veteran mixed martial artist averages 3.48 strikes per minute with an accuracy of 44 percent. But he takes a lot of significant strikes in return, absorbing 3.55 per minute with 62 percent defense.

As for Vera, he comes into the UFC APEX as the slight underdog. The 28-year-old from Ecuador has a professional fighting record of 16-6-1. This will be Vera’s third UFC bout in 2020, with his latest fight taking place in August. At UFC 252, “Chito” Vera defeated Sean O’Malley in Round 1 by TKO.

Unlike his opponent in Aldo, Vera can win this match either with striking or grappling. Vera lands 3.70 strikes per minute with an accuracy of 48 percent. At the same time, he absorbs more significant strikes than Aldo at 4.55 per minute, but “Chito” defends them at 52 percent.

In regards to grappling, Vera has a better takedown average in comparison to Aldo at 0.86 per 15 minutes with 42 percent accuracy. But he also possesses a 1.2 submission average per 15, which might be the difference in a win or loss.

Here are the odds and betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook for Jose Aldo vs. Marlon Vera at UFC Fight Night on December 19th.

Odds and Betting splits

Jose Aldo: -120 (38% of action, 48% of bets)
Marlon Vera: +150 (62% of action, 52% of bets)

DraftKings DFS Values

Jose Aldo: $8,600
Marlon Vera: $7,600

Aldo is the one the higher priced fighters on the card, but Vera may be better play in DFS for the final UFC event in 2020. “Chito” Vera is averaging 73.4 fantasy points per outing, while Aldo is only averaging 65.3 fantasy points per bout. In his last fight, Vera scored 99 fantasy points at a $7,000 salary, which included a Round 1 KO/TKO and 18 significant strikes. Even in the fight before O’Malley, he scored a pedestrian 59 points but still found a way to land 92 significant strikes.

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