Fantasy football, DFS, and betting primer for Week 11

Welcome to Week 11 of the fantasy football season. First, I’ll give you my favorite DK individual plays at each position. Then I’ll go through the relevant injuries for this week. And I’ll wrap it all up with my favorite wagers for this Sunday.

I’ll also be answering start/sit questions in our War Room starting two hours before early game kickoffs. Do give a click if you’re reading this between 11 am - 1pm EST Sunday morningish.

Weather

The weather looks good for this weekend. The only trouble spot is in Cleveland, will it should rain all game. But the wind should be okay. Play everyone as you usually would unless they’re not good and then maybe don’t.

Favorite DK plays

QBs:

Justin Herbert ($6,800)

I like entirely too many players this week on DraftKings, but am wittlin’ them down with my handy DFS knife. And Herbert has made the cut, as his receivers are healthy, he’s getting to air the ball out early and often, and the Jets are hot garbage. Last week was his second worst game of the season and he still put up 21.5 DK points. He’s not going to run like Cam or Kyler, but he also has three rushing touchdowns to help beef up his floor.

Taysom Hill ($4,800)

Hill is going to be chalk, but he won’t be as chalky as he will be on FanDuel where he can be played in the TE slot. On DK, he can only be a QB, but at his price, it will be tough to fade him. The Falcons are one of the best matchups for any quarterback, so whenever Hill throws the ball, his chances aren’t bad, but we are rostering him for his rushing ability, which he has consistently shown to be successful.

Ben Roethlisberger ($6,700)

The Steelers haven’t been forcing the run, which has been great for their passing game of late and a matchup with the Jaguars is about as good as you can get. Jacksonville gives up the most fantasy points per passing attempt in the league and they just lost cornerback C.J. Henderson.

Other QBs I like: Joe Burrow ($5,500), Lamar Jackson ($7,300), Aaron Rodgers ($7,000)

RBs:

Dalvin Cook ($9,000)

With Taysom Hill’s low price available, that puts a lot of the more expensive players in play this week. The top one for me is Cook. We saw him bottled up against the Bears last week, but still topped 100 yards due to huge usage. This week he gets a home game in a matchup where the Vikings are favored by 7 points. The Cowboys are giving up the sixth-worst yards per carry and the second-most rushing yards per game. a Hill/Cook start to your cash lineups looks good.

Kalen Ballage ($5,600)

We won’t be able to put $9k players in every slot, so Ballage makes for a nice cost saver in a game where he should see a lot of work. Justin Jackson remains out and last week Ballage was the no-doubt every-down back and will be again agains the Jets. The Jets are allowing the sixth-most total yards per game to running backs.

Nyheim Hines ($5,200)

Playing a Colts running back is perilous, so I’m likely only using Hines in GPPs, but the matchup is just too good against the Packers. Green Bay is allowing the most DK points per running back touch and the second-most running back receiving yards per game. Aaron Rodgers should be able to put points up, even against a good Colts defense, which would favor Hines to see more work in comeback mode.

Mike Davis ($6,800)

Davis hasn’t lived up to his early season numbers, but he has also had some tough matchups of late. This week he gets a Lions team that has given up an amazing 18 touchdowns to running backs, the most touches, the most yards per game, and the second-most fantasy points per touch. There are quite a few “mosts” I didn’t go into due to the time it would take to write them all out. Plus, the Lions offense is down all its best players and Teddy Bridgewater is trending toward playing. Davis should see a lot of work.

Other RBs I like: Miles Sanders ($6,900), Duke Johnson ($5,400), Damien Harris ($5,700), Adrian Peterson ($4,000)

WRs:

Davante Adams ($8,600)

Adams is the Dalvin Cook play at wide receiver. Some people may be off of him after he missed so much practice and faces a tough Colts defense, but he was taken off the injury report and will get another big target day, this time in a dome. Don’t overthink Adams if you have the room for him in your cash lineup.

Keenan Allen ($7,400)

Allen is another cash play and has a great matchup with the Jets decimated and poor pass defense. The Jets would give up even more fantasy points to wide receivers if they could stay in games. They allow the second worst catch percentage at 71.7 percent, the fourth-most receiving yards and the ninth-most DK points to wide receivers.

Jakobi Meyers ($4,900)

Meyers’ price point and extreme usage make him a chalky, but good cash game play. The Texans allow the fifth-most DK points per target and the third-most touchdowns per game to wide receivers. Meyers has hit double-digit DK points in his last four games while catching 27-of-37 targets during that stretch.

Diontae Johnson ($5,900)
Chase Claypool ($6,100)
JuJu Smith-Schuster ($6,400)

The question with this group is who do you pick? In GPPs, I’d be fine with playing two of these receivers with Roethlisberger, but would rather go after just one in cash games. Claypool is probably my favorite of the group, as he’s a touchdown beast while also seeing plenty of targets to give himself a good floor. The Jaguars don’t give up a lot of receptions to wide receivers because they rank last in yards allowed per target with 9.82. Teams do end up running on them as well, due to their inability to put up big points, but the Steelers haven’t been worrying too much about the run, even with a lead.

Other WRs I like: Jarvis Landry ($5,500), Michael Gallup ($3,700), Breshad Perriman ($4,300), Marvin Jones ($5,500), Terry McLaurin ($6,900), , Mike Williams ($5,100), Denzel Mims ($3,300), Brandin Cooks ($5,200), Justin Jefferson ($6,000)

TEs:

T.J. Hockenson ($4,200)

Hockenson let us down last week, but he’s been taken off the injury report this week while Kenny Golladay, Danny Amendola and D’Andre Swift are all out. That means we should see a whole bunch of Hockenson, making for a safer play than usual.

Dallas Goedert ($3,800)

Goedert didn’t put up the numbers I wanted last week, but he still saw six targets despite missing time to be evaluated for a concussion. Zach Ertz remains out while the Browns have allowed the fourth-most tight end receptions per game.

Logan Thomas ($3,300)

This game has some fantasy appeal, as both teams play at a fast pace and have weaknesses on defense. Thomas isn’t going to blow anyone away with his ability, but he’s been getting opportunities and this week, a nice matchup. The Bengals allow the fourth-most DK points per reception and the second-most tight end receiving yards per game.

Other TEs I like: Eric Ebron ($4,400), Hayden Hurst ($4,400), Austin Hooper ($3,900)

D/ST:

Cleveland Browns ($3,000) vs. Eagles

Carson Wentz has been so aggressively bad, that I just don’t see him putting together a game where he doesn’t help the Browns to multiple sacks and turnovers. The fact that Myles Garrett is out this week is a kick in the gut for this play, but I trust Wentz to suck.

Washington Football Team ($2,900) vs. Bengals

The Bengals have a weak offensive line and love to throw the ball, especially with Joe Mixon out. That should give Washington plenty of chances to go after Burrow. I think Burrow can accumulate fantasy points in this matchup, but I also think Washington can push their sack numbers up while making opportunities for turnover.

Other D/STs I like: Atlanta Falcons ($2,300)

Fantasy Relevant Injuries/Moves

Quarterback

Drew Brees is out at least three weeks and Taysom Hill appears to be the starter this week. Hill’s rushing ability alone makes him a possible streamer in most leagues.

Sam Darnold is doubtful, so Joe Flacco will get the start against the Chargers.

Matthew Stafford is listed as questionable, but should play against the Panthers.

Drew Lock is questionable and is set to play against the Dolphins.

Teddy Bridgewater is a game-time decision against the Lions. If he can’t play, one of Will Grier or P.J. Walker will get the start.

Andy Dalton is off the Covid-19 list and cleared of his concussion. He’ll face the Vikings this week.

Running Back

Alvin Kamara was removed from the injury report and will play as usual against the Falcons.

D’Andre Swift won’t play against the Panthers due to a concussion. Adrian Peterson will get the start.

Joe Mixon is out again. Gio Bernard will start against Washington.

James Robinson was taken off the injury report and will start against the Steelers.

Matt Breida should return this week after getting a full practice in, but Salvon Ahmed has probably won the starting job for at least one more week.

Christian McCaffrey is out this week against the Lions and Mike Davis will get the start again.

Wide Receiver

Sammy Watkins is out with calf and hamstring injuries against the Raiders.

Mecole Hardman has been activated from the Covid-19 list and should play.

Jerry Jeudy was removed from the injury report and will play as normal against the Dolphins.

Kenny Golladay and Danny Amendola are out. Marvin Jones will play.

Davante Adams will play while Allen Lazard is questionable against the Colts.

Calvin Ridley has been taken off the injury report and will play against the Saints.

Adam Humphries is still out with a concussion.

Tight Ends

T.J. Hockenson was taken off the injury report and is good to go against the Panthers. He should have plenty of work with Kenny Golladay and Danny Amendola out.

Robert Tonyan has been taken off the injury report and is ready to face the Colts.

Irv Smith Jr. is questionable to face the Cowboys after getting limited practices this week.

Noah Fant is questionable with a rib injury to face the Dolphins.

Mo Alie-Cox was taken off the injury list and appears to be healthy for the first time in a while. Jack Doyle is also questionable with a concussion, but appears close to being cleared. All three of the Colts tight ends may be healthy for their matchup with the Packers.

Favorite wagers

Last week I went 2-2, putting me at 23-14 on the season. Mike Davis and Christian Kirk didn’t hit the over on receiving yards while Washington managed to cover against the Lions and Davis went under in rushing yards.

Washington Football Team vs. Cincinnati Bengals OVER 47

Both of these teams like to push the pace on offense and both have plenty of holes on defense. Washington has also played a tough schedule this season, while the Bengals will be similar to the Lions last week, when they scored 27 points after doing nothing in the first half. Joe Burrow and company are going to keep throwing the ball, as they lead the league in pass attempts per game, and that will lead to more scoring, even if it’s for Washington.

Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts OVER 51.5

The Packers have been putting up big numbers this season, even in bad weather games of late. This week they get to play indoors against a Colts team that hasn’t faced a quarterback playing anywhere near how Rodgers has been playing. Add in the fact that the Packers defense has been poor this season and are best against wide receivers and the Colts have a good shot to move the ball as well.

Player Props

Alex Smith OVER 23.5 pass completions

In his two starts, Smith has completed 24 and 38 passes. His propensity to throw underneath should help rack up completions and this game should be close, pushing Smith to need to throw more in the fourth quarter.

Miles Sanders OVER 65.5 rushing yards

The Browns will be without Myles Garrett and this game has 100 percent chance of rain in the forecast. That could lead to a few more carries for Sanders against a weaker defensive front. He’s topped 80 rushing yards in five of his six games this season. The Browns have a good run defense, but he’s beaten the Steelers, Ravens, Giants and Rams for over 80 rushing yards and should be able to do the same against the Browns.

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