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Updated look at series lines, odds for Lakers-Heat NBA Finals

With the Heat on the brink of elimination, we take a look at how the lines have evolved for the series heading into Game 5 on Friday.

Anthony Davis of the Los Angeles Lakers reacts to a three point basket during the fourth quarter against the Miami Heat in Game Four of the 2020 NBA Finals at AdventHealth Arena at the ESPN Wide World Of Sports Complex on October 6, 2020 in Lake Buena Vista, Florida. Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

We’ve come a long way but Friday night in the NBA bubble, we could be witnesses the end of the 2019-20 season. The Los Angeles Lakers lead the 2020 NBA Finals 3-1 over the Miami Heat with Game 5 set for Friday night at 9:00 p.m. ET on ABC. Normally, the 2020-21 season would have been right around the corner. Instead, the previous season is going to be wrapping up. If the Heat can’t extend the series, LeBron James and Anthony Davis will be crowned champions in their first full season together in L.A. It would be the Lakers 17th title all-time and LeBron’s 4th of his NBA career. Let’s take a look at some updated series lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Championship Winner

Lakers: -10000
Heat: +2200

Lakers-Heat Series Correct Score

Lakers win 4-1: -335
Lakers win 4-2: +360
Lakers win 4-3: +1300
Heat win 4-3: +2200

NBA Finals MVP

LeBron James: -1000
Anthony Davis: +600
Jimmy Butler: +2300

Total Games Played

Over 5.5: +245
Under 5.5: -335
Over 6.5: +900
Under 6.5: -2000

Let’s start with the odds to win the title. No surprise that, at this point, the Lakers are heavily favored. They’ve been favored to win all series long and that sentiment has never really wavered. There really isn’t much value in throwing money on the Heat to win in seven games. It’s only +2200 and the historical odds of a team coming back down 3-1 in the finals is very low. Only one team has overcome a 3-1 deficit in the NBA Finals and that’s the Cleveland Cavaliers over the Golden State Warriors in 2016. So maybe if LeBron James was still on the Heat, we’d think about betting on Miami.

There’s a bit of appeal in looking at the Heat to extend the series to Game 6 and lose then. I had the Lakers in six games and Game 4 on Tuesday was close the entire time. It could have gone either way really. There’s an outside shot the Heat get Goran Dragic back in the lineup. Even if he can’t return, Bam came back and was a factor on defense. If Miami can lock down AD on defense and make a few extra shots, there’s a shot we see Game 6 on Sunday. For that reason, I’d also look at O5.5 games at +245.

Looking at Finals MVP, it should be between LeBron and AD and I think things are closer than they appear. If Davis has a massive Game 5 and the Lakers win, there’s a decent shot he ends up winning MVP. He hit the biggest shot of Game 4 and was great in Games 1 and 2. He wasn’t great in Game 3 but was also in foul trouble early on. It’s also not like LeBron was fantastic in Game 3 either, both of them had a ton of turnovers. Again, I think if AD outplays LeBron and the Lakers win Game 5, the big man could bring home the hardware.

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