We’ve gotten cold after a hot start to player props in the NBA Finals. The process is still good and you know what Sam Hinkie always says, “trust the process.” In Game 3, we missed a LeBron James triple-double by 2 assists. We missed Tyler Herro’s 3-point prop by 1 3-pointer after he went 6-of-18 from the floor. So again, not much to hang our heads on. Our thinking was sound and we just had a few bad beats. Jimmy Butler smashed the O6.5 assists prop, so that was good. Overall in the Finals we’re 6-4 on prop bets. Let’s get back to it Tuesday with Game 4 at 9:00 p.m. ET on ABC.
Update: So Dragic is possibly going to give it a go tonight and we now Adebayo plans on playing. There’s not really a way to attack player props on DKSB given the news. If you’re feeling crazy, maybe you go with some of Jimmy Butler’s unders: point total 24.5, assists 7.5, pts + rebs + asts 39.5. If Dragic plays, maybe Butler goes U7.5 assists. His scoring could be down as well with both Dragic and Adebayo back, but after the past two games, I don’t see why the Heat wouldn’t let Jimmy be Jimmy. I think in-game bets make the most sense. I still like the three bets below despite the news.
Jimmy Butler over 0.5 3-pointers (-103)
Butler isn’t known for his 3-pointer shooting but this line is just too good. The odds are Butler will take at least a handful of 3-pointers and because he isn’t an above-average shooter, the defender likely won’t respect him. When you don’t respect Jimmy, Jimmy don’t respect you. So I have confidence that Butler can knock down at least one open look in Game 4. We know Goran Dragic is unlikely to play, so that means more usage and more shots for Butler. He hasn’t hit a trey in two straight, but all we need is one.
LeBron James to outscore Anthony Davis (+106)
Another risky prop but if you watched Game 3, you know what we’re thinking here. Bam Adebayo could be back, which should make it more difficult on AD down low. Davis was fine in the first half of Game 1 while Bam was healthy, but look at how Game 3 went. If I’m the Heat, the only way I’m winning this series is if I shut down Davis. So I think we’ll see Erik Spoelstra game plan around that. If that’s the case, LeBron will have a clear path to being the leading scorer for L.A. James has outscored Davis in 2 of 3 games in the finals already. He could view this game as a tipping scale. If he can go out and dominate, the series is likely over. If he doesn’t, a tie could end up happening.
Anthony Davis under 29.5 points (+106)
If you don’t like taking LeBron to outscore AD, then you can just take the under on AD’s point total and we get the same odds. Again, Davis was held in check in Game 3 and he got into foul trouble early on. After that, the Heat were able to get to the basket and control the flow of the game more. So Spoelstra being the sharp coach he is, I’ve got a feeling that will be the game plan again. If Adebayo comes back tonight, even better. Davis has already been trending down a bit and there aren’t too many appealing props at this point. I’ll add in a few more perhaps before tip-off later.
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