The Los Angeles Lakers and Miami Heat face off in Game 4 of the 2020 NBA Finals on Tuesday night at 9:00 p.m. ET on ABC. The Heat got back into the series with a big win in Game 3, powered by Jimmy Butler’s triple-double. He’ll be a very popular option in the DraftKings Showdown contest. Let’s go over some strategy for Game 4, including players to fade and value picks.
Lakers vs. Heat Game 4 lineup strategy
The key to this contest will be the status of Adebayo. If he ends up playing, it really depends on what his minutes will look like. My guess is Adebayo has somewhat of a restriction, though the injury isn’t lower-body or anything. So it may be a situation where Adebayo is monitored closely, but plays around 25-30 minutes. He wouldn’t be a bad leverage play at $9,400. It’s also hard to see Bam making good on that salary. Adebayo isn’t a bad fade option, especially with the re-injury risk.
So Jimmy Butler ($9,600) is likely going to be the chalk pick at Captain and in UTIL. Butler is $14,400 in the Captain. My thinking is that the pricing is to drive up ownership on Butler. The thing is, Goran Dragic (foot) is going to be out again most likely. If that’s the case, we’ll see Butler play 40+ minutes again and his usage will be insane. The past two games, Butler has been the best play with 56.5 and 83.25 DKFP, respectively. I think you have to play Butler but not necessarily at Captain. Try mixing things up with LeBron James ($18,000), Anthony Davis ($17,100) or even Rajon Rondo ($10,800) or Tyler Herro ($12,000). Rondo and Herro are going to be lower owned and have decent ceilings.
Let’s take a look at some value picks. The Lakers are slowly shifting away from using Dwight Howard ($3,800). That could change with Adebayo back, but Los Angeles needs to space the floor better and Howard doesn’t give them that. Kyle Kuzma ($4,600) had a decent outing in Game 3 with 19 points. If he shoots the ball like this again, his ceiling makes sense for what we’re looking for in a value pick.
Kelly Olynyk ($3,200) is still criminally underpriced. Even if Adebayo comes back, if you watched Olynyk the past three games, he definitely deserves some minutes. Kelly O has combined for over 70 DKFP over the past two games. You could argue he spaces the floor better than Adebayo, plus Butler facilitating has worked better than Dragic. If you need a dart throw, Markieff Morris ($2,800) is the cheapest, viable option. He also scored 19 points in Game 3 and shot 5-of-11 from distance.