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Breaking down Chiefs vs. Patriots ATS betting splits

In a special edition of Monday evening football, we’ll see the Chiefs and Patriots face off. How are bettors handling this Week 4 game? We break down the splits pre- and post-Cam Newton’s absence.

Quarterback Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs celebrates after throwing a fourth quarter touchdown pass against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium on September 28, 2020 in Baltimore, Maryland. Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images

Monday late afternoon/evening football has the Chiefs and the Patriots matching their skills in primetime. The odds favor the Super Bowl champs, as the Chiefs are 10.5-point favorites at home. The point total is above average at 48.5, implying 29.5 points for Kansas City and 19 points for New England.

These teams come into tonight’s game in a fog of Covid-19 troubles, as Cam Newton tested positive for the coronavirus and won’t play tonight. Longtime backup Brian Hoyer will take his place a day later than originally planned.

With the change in the Patriots’ starting quarterback this week, the odds also took a big swing, as Newton’s absence should be a big hit to New England’s chances. Before Newton tested positive, the Chiefs were favored by 6.5 points and afterwards, the spread moved four points, up to 10.5 points in favor of Kansas City.

We haven’t seen the Patriots without a difference making quarterback in a long time, so setting the line must have been difficult, but based more on Bill Belichick’s ability as a coach more than the personnel on hand. The Patriots lost a good chunk of their defense up front this offseason and this week they’ll be without Newton and Sony Michel while the Chiefs come in relatively healthy.

As for how bettors are attacking this line, let’s first take a look at what they thought about the 6.5 spread when Newton was the starter. With Newton in there, bettors were on the Chiefs with 64 percent of the handle and 66 percent of the bets. That’s decisively in favor of the hometown Chiefs, but how about now, with a 10.5 spread and no Newton? With Newton on the shelf, bettors are even higher on Kansas City, with 87 percent of the handle and 79 percent of the bets placed on the home team.

Even with Belichick pulling the strings, it’s difficult imagining them coming out of Kansas City with a win, but can they beat the spread? Belichick hasn’t been a double-digit underdog since they were 14.5 underdogs against the Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI. So far, the Chiefs are 2-1 against the spread while the Patriots are also 2-1 against the spread. Belichick is 7-2 against the spread in its last nine games as an underdog. So, we know he is at his best in these situations.

We will more than likely see a lot of Rex Burkhead and James White attacking the Chiefs poor run defense and cover linebackers. They should be able to find some success there, but the Hoyer’s presence should also allow the Chiefs to concentrate on those backs instead of needing to worry about Newton taking off.

Here’s a full rundown of ATS betting splits before and after Newton’s positive test for tonight’s game:

Rams-Buccaneers Betting Splits

Teams Point Spread % Handle % Bets Total Points % Handle % Bets Moneyline % Handle % Bets
Teams Point Spread % Handle % Bets Total Points % Handle % Bets Moneyline % Handle % Bets
LA Rams 4 36% 43% Over 48.5 76% 72% 170 31% 37%
TB Buccaneers -4 64% 57% Under 48.5 24% 28% -195 69% 63%

Chiefs-Patriots Splits Post-Newton OUT

Team Spread % Handle % Bets
Team Spread % Handle % Bets
NE Patriots 10.5 13% 21%
KC Chiefs -10.5 87% 79%

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