Why I like the Packers against the spread on MNF

The Green Bay Packers will face off against the Atlanta Falcons in a Week 4 Monday Night Football matchup. The Packers hope to improve to 4-0 at a spectator-less Lambeau Field while the Falcons are looking to avoid an 0-4 start.

While Green Bay and Atlanta have combined to average 70.7 points per game in 2020, points could be hard to come by in this matchup. The over/under for total points is set at 56.5 despite the fact that both teams have beat up receiving corps. The Packers are favored by touchdown points against the worst defense in the NFL so far, and I like them to cover the spread easily. I’d bank on taking the under on points though, as neither team should be firing on all cylinders. Let’s go over why this is such a favorable matchup.

ATS Pick: Packers

Green Bay saw Allen Lazard and Equanimeous St. Brown get moved to the IR after Week 3, and star wideout Davante Adams is questionable to play because of a hamstring injury. The Packers looked thin at wide receiver when completely healthy, and they could have to lean on Marquez Valdes-Scantling as a No. 1 option if Adams can’t go. However, they do have an elite, do-it-all running back in Aaron Jones. Jones has 395 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns, so I expect him to light it up against Atlanta’s defense. Aaron Rodgers can make plays with anyone on the field, and he proved that in 2019.

The Falcons are dealing with injuries to their top two receivers — Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley — as well. This could leave Matt Ryan with Russell Gage and Hayden Hurst as his top options through the air. Ryan was hardly able to get anything going when Calvin Ridley was his only reliable option in Week 3, when Jones and Gage were sidelined with injuries. Ryan can’t depend on Todd Gurley to move the chains consistently out of the backfield. Atlanta will also be missing key defenders like 2020 first-round pick A.J. Terrell, safety Keanu Neal, and defensive lineman Takkarist McKinley. The Falcons’ defensive struggles are likely to lead to their undoing for a fifth straight week.

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