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How public is betting and DFS considerations for Bobby Green vs. Thiago Moises

Bobby Green and Thiago Moises meet in a lightweight bout on the main card of UFC Vegas 12 on October 31st. We break down how the betting public is picking the fight and the DFS pricing from DraftKings.

Bobby Green celebrates after his victory over Alan Patrick of Brazil in a lightweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at UFC APEX on September 12, 2020 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

The first fight on the main card of UFC Vegas 12 will be a lightweight bout between Bobby Green and Thiago Moises live this Saturday from Las Vegas, Nevada, and also available on ESPN+.

Bobby Green will enter as the heavy favorite. With almost 40 MMA bouts to his name, Green is 27-10-1 and riding a three-match win streak. His last six fights have ended in a unanimous decision, winning four of them. Green averages 5.13 significant strikes per minute and 1.53 takedowns per 15.

His opponent 25-year-old Thiago Moises, also relies on his grappling and averaging over a takedown per 15 minutes. With a 3-2 UFC record, Moises has been out-struck in most of his bouts, but delivers 2.68 significant strikes while taking 3.54. This may be his biggest challenge yet.

Here are the betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook for Bobby Green vs. Thiago Moses at UFC Vegas 12 on October 31st.

Betting splits

Bobby Green: -335, (68% of action, 87% of bets)
Thiago Moises: +245, (32% of action, 13% of bets)

DraftKings DFS Values

Bobby Green: $9,000
Thiago Moises: $7,200

Green has all the value in this one. Moises isn’t a great defender, and Green lets fights go the distance. The most likely outcome seems like a unanimous decision for Green after he’s delivered a whirlwind of strikes.

That might make his lofty $9k price tag worth it. It doesn’t seem likely he’ll get a crazy first-round knockout, but averaging over 70 fantasy points per fight and notching over 80 in his last three, he’s a great value even at such a high price.

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