Fantasy football, DFS, and betting primer for Week 7

Welcome to Week 7 of the fantasy football season. First, I’ll give you my favorite DK individual plays at each position. Then I’ll go through the relevant injuries for this week. And I’ll wrap it all up with my favorite wagers for this Sunday.

I’ll also be answering start/sit questions in our War Room starting two hours before early game kickoffs. Do give a click if you’re reading this between 11 am - 1pm EST Sunday morningish.

Weather

The Chiefs play in Denver where it’s going to be in the teens and snowing. There is a chance of some gusty wind, but nothing over 20 mph. These aren’t ideal conditions for the passing game and kicking. If you have close start/sit calls involving players from this matchup, lean the other way.

Favorite DK plays

QBs:

Kyler Murray, Cardinals, $7,100

Murray only completed 9-of-24 passes last week against the Cowboys and still managed 28.9 DK points. This week he gets a Seattle team at home that has allowed the second-most DK points to quarterbacks. He makes for a great cash game play, as his rushing ability keeps his floor high.

Cam Newton, Patriots, $6,300

Newton was bad last week, as he threw for just 157 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions against the Broncos. And yet, he still topped 20 DK points due to his 76 yards rushing and rushing touchdown. That’s just nuts. The 49ers defense is usually one to avoid, but they are absolutely decimated with injuries and have allowed big rushing numbers to Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones and Carson Wentz.

RBs:

Alvin Kamara, Saints, $7,900

Kamara gets a great matchup against a Panthers team that has allowed the fourth-most DK points to running backs, as well as the most receptions and fourth-most receiving yards. With Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders out, Kamara should see a boat-load of targets as well. He will be highly rostered, but for good reason.

Jamaal Williams, Packers, $4,000

We have a couple strong value plays this week in Williams and Giovani Bernard. I like both quite a bit, but I’m leaning Williams if you are choosing between the two due to the over/under of 57 and the Texans defense. Yes, A.J. Dillon could be a problem, but I see the Texans at least putting up some points and Williams is going to be relied on more in the passing game than Dillon.

WRs:

Keenan Allen, Chargers, $6,200

With Justin Herbert as the starter, Allen has seen 10, 19 and 11 targets in his three full games. He hurt his back in their game before the bye, but still managed a touchdown in that matchup. This week he faces a Jaguars defense that ranks dead last in DVOA against the pass

Kenny Golladay, Lions, $6,700

The Falcons have been smoked by wide receivers this season, allowing eight receivers to top 90 yards. Add in the fact that Julio Jones is back, ad the Falcons offense finally got on track last week, and I expect Golladay will be needed early and often in this choice matchup.

Tre’Quan Smith, Saints, $4,000

With Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders out, Smith and Jared Cook are the two best receivers the Saints have. Smith has a two touchdown game and a five reception, 87 yard game while Thomas has been out and now he should have even more targets funneled his way. And, if you want a truly cheap receiver, Marquez Callaway is in store for a good workload as the likely No. 2 wide receiver and he is priced a $3,000.

TEs:

Hunter Henry, Chargers, $4,500

Henry ranks fourth in targets per game for tight ends and faces a Jaguars team that has allowed touchdowns to Jonnu Smith, Mike Gesicki, Darren Fells and T.J. Hockenson this season. They’ve also allowed the second most yards per target to the position with 10.6

D/ST:

Washington Football Team, $2,500

The Cowboys are hurting on their offensive line and that spells trouble for Andy Dalton, as we saw last week against the Cardinals. The Cowboys have the talent to put up numbers, even with Dalton starting, but it will likely be a struggle and turnovers are on the table.

Fantasy Relevant Injuries/Moves

Quarterback

Sam Darnold should make his return to the field on Sunday against the Bills. He hasn’t played well this season but he’s better than Joe Flacco.

Running Back

Aaron Jones isn’t expected to play against the Texans. Jamaal Williams and A.J. Dillon will take over at running back, with Williams likely to see a big bump in work in a good matchup.

Justin Jackson is listed as questionable, but did get a full practice in on Friday. If he ends up not playing, Joshua Kelley would get the bulk of the work against a poor Jaguars defense.

Joe Mixon is out with a foot injury. That gives Giovani Bernard the start and makes him a useful fantasy player against the Browns.

Wide Receiver

Jamison Crowder is doubtful to play against the Bills. Braxton Berrios has played well from the slot in Crowder’s place this season if you are in need for a deep play.

Michael Thomas is out with a hamstring and Emmanuel Sanders is out due to Covid-19. That elevates Tre’Quan Smith and Marquez Callaway as the Top 2 wide receivers for this matchup with Carolina.

John Brown is out against the Jets with a knee injury. Stefon Diggs should be in for a big day while Gabriel Davis gets the start.

DeAndre Hopkins didn’t practice at all this week, but he’s done that before and played. As long as he suits up, you have to start him in this strong matchup with Seattle.

Tight Ends

Austin Hooper is out after having an appendectomy, so David Njoku and Harrison Bryant will fill in for him. Njoku had a very slight lead in targets and snaps last week and would give him the edge for a spot fantasy start in a good matchup.

Dawson Knox, Tommy Sweeney, Lee Smith and Nate Becker are all out due to Covid-19. That leaves Tyler Kroft as the only tight end available. He gets a good matchup with the Jets and John Brown is out, so there is reason to give him a shot this weekend.

Jordan Akins didn’t practice this week and is likely to sit again. That would elevate Darren Fells to a big snap count once again.

Noah Fant returned to full practice and should be ready to go against the Chiefs in the snow.

Robert Tonyan is questionable after getting a limited practice in on Friday. He probably will play, but the Packers are usually cautious with injuries, so keep an eye on his status.

Favorite wagers

Last week I went 2-2, getting my two ATS picks right, but missing on both my player props. I blame the Giants for not shadowing Terry McLaurin with James Bradberry and Andy Dalton for not pushing Kyler Murray to throw more, instead of myself for making the wrong picks. I’m now 13-8 on the season. Not horrible, but could be better.

Carolina Panthers +7 vs. New Orleans Saints

If the Saints defense was playing better, I’d probably skip this game, but they have been bad against the pass, allowing 15 passing touchdowns to just three interceptions. Teddy Bridgewater has some good weapons to pass to while Drew Brees is down both Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray should be able to run on them, but their offense will be one-dimensional and I expect a close game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4.5 vs. Oakland Raiders

The Buccaneers are getting healthier on offense and have one of the best defenses in the league. The Raiders will be without offensive lineman Trent Brown and the Bucs have the second-best adjusted sack rate in the league. Derek Carr very much needs a secure pocket and this week he’ll have trouble getting one.

Seattle Seahawks -3.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals had their way with a broken Cowboys team last week and a Joe Flacco led Jets team the previous week, but lost to the Panthers and Lions in Week’s 3 and 4. This is a great test for them to show they are on Seattle’s level, but I think Russell Wilson is playing out of his mind this season and coming off a bye, I like his chances for a big game.

Player Prop

Kenny Golladay OVER 74.5 receiving yards

So far, the Falcons have allowed over 74.5 receiving yards to DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, Allen Robinson, D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, and Justin Jefferson. Golladay topped 100 yards last week against the Jaguars and with Julio Jones back and Dan Quinn gone, the Falcons offense went into overdrive last week. If they can put up points, Golladay should get a workload to help him beat this prop.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL).

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (NH/CO) or 1-800-BETS OFF (IA). 21+ (18+ NH). NJ/PA/WV/IN/NH/IA/CO/IL only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.