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The Los Angeles Lakers lead the 2020 NBA Finals against the Miami Heat 1-0 after a convincing win in Game 1 on Wednesday night. The Heat got off to a quick start but faltered late in the first quarter and L.A. never looked back. Miami is now dealing with multiple key injuries to Goran Dragic, Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler. Let’s take a look at some fades and value picks for the DraftKings Showdown contest, which locks at 9:00 p.m. ET on Friday.
Note: Bam Adebayo (shoulder) will not play in Game 2 on Friday, per ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski.
Set your DraftKings lineup here.
Players to Fade
Tyler Herro ($8,600)
Let’s run this pick back because I don’t think the Lakers will let Herro get any space to get off clean looks. You’d think with Dragic being out, there’d be more minutes and usage for Herro. That’s true, but it’s not necessarily a positive. The Heat will be very one-dimensional if Dragic and Bam are both sidelined, which is the assumption I’ll operate under. Herro struggled in Game 1, going 6-of-18 from the floor and 2-of-8 from distance. His price is up $600 and it’s just tough to cram in Herro when we’ll probably want to play LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Jimmy Butler.
Jae Crowder ($7,400)
I think we need to fade some of the chalkier Heat plays like Herro and Crowder and look to Miami for value. Crowder really only thrives in DFS if he’s knocking down 3-point shots. He’s capable of hitting 4-5 outside shots in a game, but that’s about it. He’s in a tough mismatch — especially now with Adebayo likely out — so there won’t be as many rebounding opportunities. If Crowder is simply going to provide fantasy points through 3-pointers, I don’t want anything to do with him at this price. It also hurts he’ll need to guard either LeBron or AD most of Game 2.
Value Picks
Kendrick Nunn ($5,000)
Nunn is the guy I’m looking at to provide value, sliding into that 6th-man role off the bench in place of Herro, who should start in place of Dragic. There’s also a chance Nunn ends up starting, which is even better. I like the matchup for Nunn in the second unit against some of the Lakers’ reserve players. Nunn had 18 points on 8-of-11 shooting in garbage time for the Heat in Game 1. If Miami has any intention of not getting swept, it needs to get something like this out of Nunn in an actual game. He was one of the better rookies this season, so I’m expecting Nunn to step up.
Danny Green ($4,000)
It’s the NBA Finals so of course Danny Green is back to hitting 3-pointers. He had 11 points, 4 rebounds and 3 blocks in 30 minutes in Game 1. Green will be needed for his defense on the perimeter against Tyler Herro and Jimmy Butler. If the Heat come out flat without Bam and Dragic, my expectation is plenty of outside looks for Green. It’s between Green and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope as far as outside shooters for L.A. I lean Green because he’s a bit cheaper and should have lower ownership.