Why you should take the Chiefs against the spread on MNF

The Kansas City Chiefs travel to Orchard Park to take on the Buffalo Bills for an afternoon game in Week 6. This matchup was moved up a day to give the Bills more time to prepare after their last game was moved to Tuesday, and, well, this is the NFL in a pandemic.

Both teams are coming off upset losses at home, as the Chiefs lost to the Raiders and the Bills were thumped by the Titans. But, both losses were each teams’ first of the season, as both are 4-1.

The Chiefs are 5-point favorites over the Bills, and this game has a 56.5 over/under.

ATS Pick: Chiefs

The Bills come into this game ranking 24th against the pass and 22nd against the run in DVOA, while the Chiefs rank second against the pass and 28th against the run. These two teams do their damage through the air, so we need to give Mahomes and the Chiefs the advantage, as they get the better matchup.

The Bills will get Tre’Davious White back, which is big, but as a group, they’ve still been lackluster. The Bills also get rookie running back Zack Moss back, who was running behind Devin Singletary. His presence could give the Bills more reason to run the ball against the Chiefs weak run defense.

The Chiefs will be without wide receiver Sammy Watkins and left guard Kelechi Osemele. The Chiefs still have a good offensive line, but they are getting thinner and Watkins was playing well this season. Mecole Hardman will take over for Watkins and has big play ability. Much will depend on if Mahomes and Hardman can hook up deep this week. There is a chance that Hardman makes the offense better.

Mahomes shredded the Ravens a couple week’s ago when they blitzed him an amazing 40 times. The Bills also like to blitz a lot, as they haven’t been able to get to the quarterback with their base defense. The Raiders were able to get to Mahomes last week, sacking him three times, and that was a huge part of how they won.

Andy Reid and Mahomes are two people I don’t see letting their team lose back-to-back games in the AFC, especially against an opponent who they could be fighting for a bye week and home-field advantage against. And if the Chiefs get up on the Bills, Allen will be forced into bad decisions like he was last week against the Titans. In reality, I think these teams are close, but I also see the Chiefs beating this spread as the Bills do everything they can to come from behind late.

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