Week 6 NFL Survivor pool strategy and picks

Saturday PM update: All games scheduled for this weekend appear on track to play. Broncos-Patriots and Lions-Jaguars were two games with some questions, but by all accounts Saturday evening, both should play. We’ll keep an eye on Sunday morning news in case adjustments are necessary.

We’re back for Week 6 of the 2020 NFL regular season. There is no Thursday Night Football this week due to Covid-19 rescheduling, so you don’t have to ponder a Thursday Survivor pick! Instead, Chiefs-Bills has been moved to Monday early evening.

Things got a little crazy in Week 5. The Dolphins thumped the 49ers and the Browns upended the Colts. We almost saw complete Survivor pool chaos when the Giants carried a lead late in the game against the Cowboys, but Dallas hung on for the late win.

If you’ve never played in a Survivor pool, it’s a pretty straightforward deal. You pick one team each week that you think will win. If your team loses in Week 1, you’re eliminated (unless it’s a double elimination pool). If your team wins in Week 1, you can make a pick in Week 2. If your team wins in Week 2, you can make a pick in Week 3, and so on. The catch is that you cannot pick the same team twice. You could use a heavy favorite in Week 1, but you would not have access to them later in the year if you’re alive in the closing weeks.

Survivor pools are usually either a single elimination contest or a double elimination contest. I am in one of each, or should say was. I doubled down on my 49ers and got the boot in both (I had used Indianapolis in Week 1). C’est la vie.

DK Nation is back this week to help with a look at safe choices, value choices, and potential traps. It was a shaky week for my suggestions. The Ravens rolled while the Saints needed overtime to close out my safe picks. I stuck with 49ers over Dolphins because of Jimmy Garoppolo’s return and that stung. I got my Chiefs-Raiders trap pick right, while the Cardinals proved the Jets remain horrendous.

On to Week 6!

Covid questions

Chiefs-Bills was moved to Monday and should be good to go. Broncos-Patriots was moved from last Sunday to this Sunday and both teams seem to be in good shape. Finally, the Titans appear to be through their outbreak and good to go moving forward.

Safest picks

Ravens over Eagles
Dolphins over Jets

The Ravens have greater value later in the season, but the Eagles are not good so this remains a quality pick. I’m not entirely sure what to make of Miami, but the Jets are awful.

Best value picks

Dolphins over Jets
Giants over Washington

Six weeks ago, I’m pretty sure nobody would have considered these picks worth making. The Jets are abysmal, and even if Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t quite so for real, picking against the Jets makes sense.

The Giants are not a good football team, but Washington is awful. This might be getting a little too cute, but depending on how your pool is looking, I don’t think it’s the worst pick.

Trap pick

Steelers over Browns
Patriots over Broncos

Cleveland is looking good, and it’s tough to pick the Steelers to cover or even just win as favorites. The Patriots will be back and should have Cam Newton playing. I’d lean against using them so quickly in their return with some roster uncertainty.