It’s fitting that DraftKings essentially lumped Tyler Lockett ($7,200) and Stefon Diggs ($6,600) together this weekend in terms of price tag because the two wide receivers are in such a similar place. While both are technically the No. 1 option of their respective teams, it hasn’t always felt like that’s been the case throughout the entirety of 2019. While both have exploded for massive single-game DFS outputs this season, each has had long droughts of inactivity where it feels like they’ve fallen of their quarterback’s radar. Finally, while both have decent matchups on paper this Sunday, their situations do come with obvious caveats.
So, which wideout is more deserving of a start in this week’s four-game NFL slate?
Fantasy Football Analysis: Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett vs. Vikings WR Stefon Diggs
While Lockett was able to end the regular season on a positive note with a massive DFS performance in Week 15 against the Panthers and a relatively solid showing in Week 17 versus the 49ers, it doesn’t change that fact that he was about as inconsistent an asset as Fantasy Football had this year. In fact, after checking in as WR5 in PPR formats through the first 10 weeks of 2019 — trailing only the likes of Michael Thomas, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Amari Cooper — Lockett ranked as WR51 from Week 11 on, managing a paltry 0.17 PPR fantasy points per snap played within that stretch. That was also a span of time that included a game in Philadelphia, where Lockett would wind up with just one catch for 38 yards on two targets. This wasn’t an outlier result, either. Though the Eagles have technically conceded the sixth-most DKFP per contest to opposing receivers, they’ve allowed 5.8 yards per pass attempt at home compared to a far more generous 7.8 yards per attempt on the road.
The case for and against Diggs is just as wild a ride. With the Saints as an opponent this Sunday, it’s more than likely that Diggs is going to see a whole lot of Marshon Lattimore in coverage, which, to be honest, is not an ideal matchup for any WR. Still, I think the positives tend to outweigh the negatives when it comes to Diggs’ viability. Not only did the veteran finish the season averaging 2.87 yards per route - the most of any qualified wideout - but he also should be playing within a game script that better suits him achieving his upside. New Orleans is the slate’s biggest favorite and this contest has easily the highest implied total of any game taking place this weekend. With that in mind, I believe it’s more than likely we see the Vikings throw the football at a high volume, which would line up with what we’ve seen all year, as the Saints have induced the league’s second-highest pass rate (65.6%). Though you could make an argument that neither Diggs nor Lockett is a must-play, it seems clear that the former is in a better spot.
Start Stefon Diggs over Tyler Lockett on DraftKings.