The Texans are a pass-heavy team that only runs the ball on 37% of their offensive snaps. Of the eight teams playing on Wild Card Weekend, that would be the lowest mark on the slate. The two main running backs the Texans use are also very game-script dependent. Hyde ($5,100) averages a single target per game while Johnson ($4,400) never saw more than nine carries in a game. If you have a good feel for how this game is going to be played out, which opened with the Texans as -3.5 favorites, you can certainly use one of these players. If you’re unsure, this situation could be a bit too messy to consider.
Fantasy Football Analysis: Houston Texans RBs Carlos Hyde, Duke Johnson
The Bills run defense was slightly better than league average, allowing an average of 17.5 DKFP, 88 rushing and 42 receiving yards. If it wasn’t for the Patriots rushing for 121 yards in Week 16, the Bills would have ended the year holding opposing teams to under 100 rushing yards for seven straight weeks. While Hyde handles the bulk of the carries, he only found the end zone six times this season.
If the Texans were to fall behind, Hyde doesn’t offer much upside without generating any targets. That’s where Johnson comes into play. After being used very sparingly at the beginning of the season, Johnson averaged 5.4 targets through the final five weeks of the season. Catches out of the backfield were an issue for the Bills and Johnson could be a weapon that could give them issues IF, and it’s a big if, the Texans are behind. One factor to also consider is the health of Will Fuller ($4,900). When he’s been off the field, Johnson has seen a slight 5% increase in his overall target share. While it’s not huge, it certainly is a factor, given how cheap Johnson is. Nonetheless, if we’re going off the spread, Hyde feels like the safer cash play while Johnson is your tournament option.
Fantasy Start/Sit Recommendation
Hyde play in cash/sit in tournaments
Johnson sit in cash/play in tournaments