Texans vs. Bills Matchup Statistics, Wild Card round

Now that we are in the playoffs, we can dig a little deeper into the defensive statistics for each playoff matchup. It is true that statistics can lie or at least obscure the truth we need to see, but on the whole, they can give us a decent idea how teams are attacked on average.

If a team gives up a ton of rushing yards, we can infer that their opponents have a reason to run against them. Maybe they just can’t stop the run or their pass defense is so good teams need to run or maybe game flow has them trailing more often than not and teams look to salt away the game on the ground. At this point in the season we can feel somewhat confident in what a team’s strengths and weaknesses are.

These stats should help us when we go to set our DFS lineups, especially the Showdown slate for this game. Below I have given us the statistics allowed for each position on the season and just below that, for the last eight games of the season for some context on how team defenses are doing more recently. I’ve also opened up the comments on these posts if you have any questions about the statistics.

For this post we’ll look at the Texans and the Bills.

The Bills are known for their pass defense and that bares out starkly in the matchup stats, especially when you compare the numbers to the Texans less than good stats allowed to quarterbacks. Both teams have stayed consistent to their season numbers in the second half, with the Texans ranking near the bottom and the Bills near the top in both sets of stats. Football Outsiders’ DVOA has the Bills ranked 5th against the pass and the Texans ranked 26th.

DeShaun Watson will have trouble with this defense, but his rushing ability gives him a boost while Josh Allen is set up with the best matchup of the weekend statistically.

The Bills aren’t as good against the run as they are the pass but they are still pretty stout against running backs, ranking 12th in DK points allowed on the season and 10th in the second half of the season. The Texans, on the other hand, are 27th on the season and 30th in the second half. They’re also one of the worst in the league at stopping running backs from catching passes.

DVOA against the run has the Bills ranked 17th while the Texans are ranked 22nd. Attacking the Bills on the ground is probably the weakest point of their defense and the Texans want to get Carlos Hyde going, as the Texans have given up 49 sacks and rank 27th in adjusted sack rate allowed.

The Texans have turned their wide receiver defense up in the second half of the season, as they rank 21st for the year at allowing DK points to the position but seventh over the second half of the season. The Bills have stayed strong against receivers, as you would expect with Tre’Davious White anchoring the unit.

Football Outsiders has the Bills ranking 2nd and 4th against No. 1 and 2 receivers while the Texans rank 14th and 24th. It does look like Will Fuller will return this week, which will help the passing game a lot, no matter how good the Bills secondary is. Fuller’s ability to stretch the field coupled with DeAndre Hopkin’s ability all over the field, makes for a tough combo to defend.

The Bills weakest spot is against receivers who line up on the left, as they rank 10th in fantasy points allowed to that spot while the Texans rank 21st or worse against every position in fantasy points allowed.

The Texans have allowed the second-most DK points to tight ends out of all the Wild Card teams while the Bills have allowed the fewest of the group. DVOA has them closer but neither team has taken advantage of their tight ends that often. Darren Fells has put together a great touchdown season but he is the definition of touchdown or bust and when Will Fuller is healthy, the tight ends usually see their work diminished.