Breaking down the most popular player prop bets for Super Bowl 54

The 2020 Super Bowl is a mere four days away, and betting on the big game is heating up. The betting public is split over the 49ers and Chiefs point spread, but loves the over. However, where we can find some particularly interesting insights is in the Super Bowl 54 prop bets.

A prop bet allows bettors to wager on single events within the broader event. You can bet on the point spread, point total, and who generally will win, but you can also bet on things like the coin toss, who will throw the most interceptions, who will have the most receiving yards, and so forth. Anything you can think of, you can probably find someone willing to take a bet on it.

DraftKings Sportsbook has hundreds of individual player prop bets, and on Tuesday they released a list of the top five most bet player props. They split them up by how much money has been bet (handle) and how many individual wagers have been placed. This list is ranked by handle and then has individual wagers ranking in parenthesis.

1. Patrick Mahomes to throw most interceptions (second)
2. Tyreek Hill to record longest reception (first): +350
3. Mecole Hardman to record longest reception (third): +1100
4. Tyrann Mathieu to make first interception (fourth): +800
5. Richard Sherman to make first interception (fifth): +900

It’s not surprising the Chiefs are topping the list. This should be an extremely competitive Super Bowl, but Kansas City is the higher profile team to a certain degree.

Mahomes throwing the most interceptions does surprise me to some extent. I suspect it is due in part to Jimmy Garoppolo throwing so few passes in the NFC title game. If you think the Chiefs are going to win in a shootout, Garoppolo might make more sense for turnovers. Of course, with the betting public backing the 49ers on the money line, maybe some bettors think Mahomes comes up short in a comeback attempt due to turnovers.

It’s not surprising Hill and Hardman are getting love for long receptions. Both are speedsters that are big play threats. Travis Kelce and George Kittle are huge playmakers, and both teams have a host of other pass catchers who could get in the mix, but Hill or Hardman seems the best bet given their speed. It’s a logical wager.

The first interception is a fascinating one. Mathieu and Sherman are the high profile defensive backs in this game, but will Mahomes and Garoppolo avoid them? For the 49ers, nickel back K’Waun Williams (+1800) was second on the team in interceptions behind Sherman. For the Chiefs, Charvarius Ward (+1000) and Bashaud Breeland (+1300) each had two interceptions during the regular season. You could roll the dice on a linebacker for particularly long odds, but it’s a crap shoot.

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