Best bets for Jimmy Garoppolo Super Bowl 54 props

Getting some skin in the game for the Super Bowl is one of the most ideal ways to further your experience watching the game. Super Bowl 54 will offer a host of prop bets on the full game, individual quarters, and player-specific performances. In this piece, we’ll examine all the different ways you can take some prop bets on Jimmy Garoppolo and how he performs. Let’s take a look at three of these bets at DraftKings Sportsbook that I feel are worth your time as the San Francisco 49ers prepare to face the Kansas City Chiefs.

Jimmy Garoppolo Completion (%) - Including Overtime OVER 64.5% -114

Maybe you look at this bet and think, “why would I want to bet someone who threw the ball only eight times against the Packers?” That’s the beauty of this bet. We don’t really care if he throws the ball four times in this game, as long as it goes over a 64.5% completion rate. To be fair, when Garoppolo has needed to throw the ball, he’s usually over this number. In fact, on the season, he’s averaged 68.8% and has gone over 64.5% in 14 of his 18 games this season. We know the 49ers have been running the ball very heavily over the past two weeks but the Chiefs lack defensively against one particular position, tight end.

Opposing tight ends have caught 67.3% of their pass attempts between the regular season and playoffs while averaging 59 yards per game, one of the highest totals in the league. With a tough secondary to deal with, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Garoppolo rely on one of his most trusted targets in George Kittle. With some potential tough coverage on Deebo Samuel and Emmanuel Sanders, Kittle could and should be open to grab whatever comes his way from Garoppolo. In a game that is projected to be high scoring, Garoppolo should be able to hit the over on the 64.5%.

Total pass attempts UNDER 29.5 -114

Now, this total DOES feel too high, even in a game where we expect Garoppolo to be passing a lot more than he did against the Packers. For someone who hasn’t hit the over on this total since Week 15 of the regular season, I’m struggling with anything but the under here. Overall, we’ve only seen Garoppolo throw the ball at least 30 times occur seven times this season. Against this Chiefs secondary, that isn’t going to be the way to beat them. Where you can exploit that defense has and will continue to be on the ground.

Entering this game, the Cheifs are allowing an average of 103 rushing yards and 4.7 YPC to opposing running backs. With the way Raheem Mostert just ran against an equally bad Packers run defense, how could you not go back to the well with that type of game plan? Sure, if the Niners go down by a couple of scores, no one would be shocked to see them abandon that strategy but until that occurs, I think they’ll once again run the ball heavily with Mosterst, with Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida potentially in the mix as well. In a game where the Niners are underdogs, Garoppolo does have a path to going over his 29.5 attempts but I feel like it’s a stretch to be putting money on that over.

Total Passing Yards by Jimmy Garoppolo in the 1st half UNDER 120.5 -114

The Chiefs have gotten off to some really slow starts in both playoff games. Against the Texans, they found themselves in a 21-0 hole in the first quarter and against the Titans, a score of 10-7. As evidenced by my previous thoughts, I like the 49ers to come out of the gate running the ball, negating the need for Garoppolo to throw the ball. By slowing down this game and keeping the Chiefs off the field, the Niners can establish their run game and keep the passing total for Garoppolo down. While his yardage total for the first half is low and it wouldn’t take much for him to pass it, I would be shocked to see him actively busy in the first half, especially if the Chiefs cannot turn on that second gear until the second quarter once again.

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