The all quarterback strategy for Pro Bowl DFS

When setting your DraftKings Pro Bowl lineups, there’s a quirk where, if you pick all six of the quarterbacks available, it will zero your $50,000 salary out. Just think if you could use only quarterbacks in your regular season DK lineups and fit the top quarterbacks in every slot. Well, you can this Saturday, if you are so inclined.

Lamar Jackson (Captain) $15,000
DeShaun Watson (Flex) $8,600
Russell Wilson (Flex) $8,400
Drew Brees (Flex) $7,600
Ryan Tannehill (Flex) $5,400
Kirk Cousins (Flex) $5,000

There are six Pro Bowl quarterbacks and they spread their playing time out fairly evenly, but often the starter sees the fewest number of snaps. In the past, scoring in Pro Bowls was massive. From 1999 to 2016, the average total score was 71 points, while the average over the last three games was 38. Some recent rule changes might have had something to do with that price discrepancy, as teams now need to have a tight end and running back on the field at all times and defenders are able to do more press coverage and cover 3 defense. But, we also could just be in a slight scoring slump.

If you look at quarterback performances before this downturn in scoring, there were many more touchdown passes and yards for each quarterback to accumulate and a lineup built with only QBs might have had a chance in DFS. But recently, it had zero chance of cashing, as the Top 5 scorers of late have been mostly tight ends and wide receivers, while quarterbacks have their statistics spread out too much.

This season we do get a rule change where a team can elect to take the ball at their own 25-yard line after they score. They then get one chance to successfully convert a 4th and 15 to keep possession. Since this is the Pro Bowl, I expect teams to give it a try just for the fun of trying, which could set teams up for short fields if their opponent doesn’t convert the fourth down. It will be interesting to see if scoring gets a boost with the rule.

In the end, going with all quarterbacks isn’t recommended, as tight ends and wide receivers score more on average while quarterbacks have an okay floor but little upside — as they recently have averaged around 100 yards passing and one touchdown. If you do end up zeroing out your salary cap in this matchup, there’s a good chance you’ve gone about building your lineup in a sub-optimal way.