We have six quarterbacks to choose from for DraftKings’ 2020 Pro Bowl DFS slate. Over the last three seasons, three of the six quarterbacks threw a touchdown in each game while two, two and three topped 100 yards. In that stretch, no team has topped 26 points. But, that hadn’t been the norm before these last three games. In those three games the total averaged out to 37.7 points, in the 17 previous Pro Bowls, the average point total was 71.2 points, with no single game dipping below 40 total points.
Rule changes are likely the biggest reason for this dip in scoring, as teams had to have a running back and tight end in on every play and defenders could start to play press coverage starting in 2017. That leads me to use these recent results as a template, but there is room for more scoring still.
You don’t have to pick a quarterback and if their low floor continues, that can be a decent strategy. But, the odds aren’t bad that you’ll get 100 yards and a touchdown out of your passer. You have better odds of getting a dud wide receiver than a dud quarterback, so taking the chance isn’t a bad idea.
Lamar Jackson, AFC, Ravens (Captain $15,000, Flex $10,000)
This was Jackson’s MVP season and he’ll have his coach. John Harbaugh, coaching the NFC team. Jackson says he’s fired up about playing in the Pro Bowl after getting upset in the playoffs and the league might want him to get some extra reps, as he is one of the most popular players playing in the game.
Unfortunately for DFS, Jackson will not be running the ball much, if at all. There’s always a chance he takes off on his own, but nobody wants the MVP getting hurt in the Pro Bowl, so he’ll likely be a passer for the most part, and on a national stage, I’m sure he’d like to show off his passing ability.
Drew Brees, NFC, Saints (Captain $11,400, Flex $7,600)
I’m not going to spit in your eye and tell you it’s raining. Picking any single player in the Pro Bowl is a crapshoot. There are trends that can help us, but we’re mostly looking at positions versus individual players. When looking to narrow down your player picks to actual human beings with names, pricing and a narrative you build in your head might be all you really get to help.
My narrative for Brees this Pro Bowl is that he’s just too dang accurate and doesn’t need as much of a connection with his receivers to get them good looks at the ball. He’s also the fourth-highest priced quarterback, giving us a little discount for someone we know can get the job done on limited pass attempts.
I am an avid fan and user (my username is cogresha) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information