Breaking down the top seven Super Bowl MVP favorites

The San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs will face off in Super Bowl LIV (54). The early favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook are the Chiefs, who are 1.5-point favorites. The game is expected to be high-scoring, as DraftKings Sportsbook has given it a total points of 53.5, higher than the 2019 league average of 46 total points per game.

The high-scoring nature of this game can be attributed to a Kansas City offense that can look unstoppable at times. Led by 2018 NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs averaged 43 points per game this postseason, way above the 2019 league average of 23 points scored per team game. Here, we will take a look at some potential Super Bowl MVP candidates and their odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Patrick Mahomes (+110) is the obvious favorite to win Super Bowl MVP. For one, MVP voting tends to skew towards the winning quarterback, as QB is the most important position on the field. Seven of the last 10 Super Bowl MVPs have been quarterbacks. Mahomes is arguably the most talented QB in the league and leads an offense that is filled with so many weapons that defenses are often forced into pick-your-poison in an effort to stop it. In the AFC title game, the Titans tried disguising their coverages between zone and man in an effort to keep everything in front of them, which contributed to Mahomes rushing for 53 yards and a TD. Mahomes’ ability to rush the ball when all of his receivers are covered gives him a higher floor and higher ceiling in impressing MVP voters.

Raheem Mostert (+500) is the biggest non-quarterback favorite to win Super Bowl MVP. Mostert demolished the Packers in an epic performance in the NFC title game, rushing for 220 yards and four TDs on 31 total touches. Mostert was helped by facing a softer box than usual, facing eight defenders or more in the box on just 14% of his snaps, way below his season average of 32%. Kansas City’s biggest weakness defensively has been against the run, which could help Mostert, although the Chiefs did an excellent job containing Derrick Henry’s efficiency in the conference title game, holding him to just 3.6 yards per carry. The degree of Mostert’s effectiveness could be based on how the Chiefs elect to defend the 49ers, as a more stacked box could give him less room to work with and hurt his chances at racking up yards in chase of Super Bowl MVP.

Jimmy Garoppolo (+200) carries the second-highest odds to win Super Bowl MVP behind Mahomes, although the 49ers’ style of play could severely impact this. The 49ers prefer to run the ball—they led the NFC in rushing attempts—and Garoppolo has attempted just 27 total passes through two playoff games, including an obscenely low eight passing attempts in the NFC title game. If the 49ers try to take the air out of the ball in an effort to keep the Chiefs’ offense off the field, Garoppolo could lack the necessary volume needed to make a strong MVP case even if the 49ers win.

Damien Williams (+3300) benefits significantly from how explosive the Chiefs’ downfield passing game can be, as defenses are more concerned with taking away the deeper parts of the field — which opens up room underneath. Williams saw eight defenders or more in the box on just 6% of his snaps in the AFC title game, a very low number. If the 49ers elect to defend the Chiefs in a similar manner in the Super Bowl, Williams could be highly efficient when touching the ball, and a few breaks here or there could make him a sleeper MVP pick.

Travis Kelce (+1600) and Tyreek Hill (+1600) are tied for the fourth best odds to win Super Bowl MVP. Hill’s speed can be terrifying for opposing defenses to game plan for, which can benefit Kelce on underneath and mid-tier routes. Kelce had an MVP-level performance in the Divisional Round, catching 10-of-12 targets for 134 yards and three TDs. A repeat of that type of performance could very realistically get him voted MVP as long as Mahomes’ performance doesn’t overshadow him. Hill is also a worthy MVP candidate given his ability to bust out for big plays with his game-breaking speed.

George Kittle (+2800) ranks third on the 49ers in MVP odds. Kittle is one of the league’s best two-way tight ends, as he showcases both elite receiving and elite run blocking. Kittle’s high level run blocking probably won’t be noticed by MVP voters, so him setting the edge with a highly skilled block to fuel a long run for Mostert is more likely to help Mostert than himself. Kittle will likely need to see big passing volume to get into the MVP conversation, which could happen if the Chiefs are able to jump out to a big lead. Kittle has the speed and receiving ability to put up the type of numbers that MVP voters are looking for.

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