Ben Simmons takes a lot of flak for not being able to shoot 3-pointers. That has clearly impacted how people approach his lines and point props on various betting sites and apps. Tonight is not different, except things are very different. The Sixers will be in Madison Square Garden taking on the Knicks on Saturday night. Philly doesn’t have Joel Embiid (finger), who is expected to miss his sixth straight game. So considering the injury and matchup, Simmons is in a very favorable spot to hit his point total over on DK Sportsbook.
Ben Simmons prop bet analysis
Point Total: 17.5 (-110)
So let’s go over Simmons past five games with Embiid out of the lineup. During this stretch, Simmons is averaging 18.8 points per game. He’s hit the over on this number in four of five games without Embiid in the lineup. Simmons is 1-1 against this point total vs. the Knicks this season (15 points in one game, 18 in another). Historically he averages 14.5 points per game in 10 contests vs. New York in his career, but another career split stands out which we’ll get to.
As for the Knicks, well, they’ve lost seven of eight games. In that stretch, they are the worst defensive team in the NBA by a wide margin, allowing 124.1 points per game. New York is also allowing teams to shoot over 50% from the field in this stretch. I know Simmons doesn’t take 3s, but if he were so inclined, the Knicks allow opponents to shoot 43.2% from downtown in the past eight games. How much deeper into the Knicks defensive shortcomings do I need to go?
So yeah, betting on Simmons to go over 17.5 points against the worst defense in the League right now seems like a no-brainer.
Ben Simmons assist total prop bet
Assist Total: 8.5 (-134)
I’ll try to make this one quick. Simmons averages 8.5 assists per game in 10 contests vs. the Knicks in his career. The Knicks are allowing 28.3 assists per game to opponents in the past eight games. Simmons’ usage has been over 20% in four of five games without Embiid and he’s hit double-digit assists in two of those games, both against either a poor defensive team (Nets) or team that plays at a high pace (Mavericks). If you think Simmons can hit the over on 8.5 assists, there’s a decent chance he gets a double-double, which is at -295 on DK Sportsbook. Not as much value there, but still seems favorable.
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