When looking at how many total points the Packers and 49ers will score in the NFC Championship game, there are many different stats and narratives to choose from. We will delve into a few, but the deep dive could drown us, so we’ll try to keep it simple so we don’t bury ourselves so deep in stats that we can’t see the finish line, which also happens to be our wager cashing.
Current over/under line: 46.5
Over/under betting Trends
On the season, the Packers have hit the over seven times and the under 10 times while the 49ers have gone over eight times, under eight times and pushed once. That gives us a slight under vibe, but nothing to perk our ears too high.
In games with over/under lines between 45.5 and 47.5, the under hits slightly more often at 51.2 percent since 2014.
So far in the 2020 playoff games, the under is 6-2, but since 2011 conference championship games have an over record of 20-12-2.
Scoring trends
The 49ers have averaged the second-most points in the league with 29.8 per game while the Packers rank 14th at 23.8 points per game.
This game has an implied total of 27 points for the 49ers and 19.5 for the Packers. So Vegas is counting on the 49ers defense knocking the Packers down quite a bit from their average.
The 49ers have scored more than their implied total of 27 points in 10 of their 17 games while the Packers have gone over their implied 19.5 points in 14 of their 17 games.
Previous matchup
In Week 12, the Packers went to San Francisco and were roundly beaten 37-8. The 49ers got to Aaron Rodgers five times and held him to a paltry 1.7 net yards per pas play, as he and his receivers couldn’t connect on a single deep pass. Jimmy Garoppolo, on the other hand, completed all six of his deep passes.
There are plenty of examples of teams getting beaten easily in the regular season who then cam back and won in the playoffs and even more examples of the game at least being much closer. In playoff games where the previous matchup was a blowout of 25-points or more, the next game had a 8.4 points margin.
The 49ers defense has gotten healthier, as they will have Dee Ford and Kwon Alexander back, but the Packers should get Brian Bulaga back this week, after he missed most of their Week 12 matchup with a knee injury. While Bulaga was out, his replacement was beaten for three of the five total sacks on Rodgers.
Championship matchup
If you think Aaron Rodgers won’t complete one pass over 10-yards down the field, then you’ll want to hit the under, because the 49ers will again hold the Packers down without a true pass threat. Richard Sherman is a shutdown corner but doesn’t follow receivers around the field. That’s good news, as Davante Adams, the only Packers receiver we can count on, will have a better chance against any other defender as he lines up all over the formation.
The 49ers are a better team the the Packers in most statistical categories, but we’re not looking at who will win, we want to know how many points will be scored. Last week the 49ers put up 27 points with Garoppolo only completing 11 passes for 131 yards and one touchdown, as they ran the ball 47 times for 186 yards and two touchdowns. This game doesn’t need to have big numbers through the air for us to top the 46.5 points over. If the Packers put up any kind of fight, I expect this game to give us the points we need to cash on the over.
Championship pick
Take the over at 46.5 total points
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