There are only four teams left in the NFL playoffs and the pool of players to add to your DFS lineups is shrinking week by week. The Packers and the 49ers will face off Sunday evening in the NFC Championship game. Each of these teams found success on the ground in the divisional round, but can they continue that trend this week? We will take a closer look at Tevin Coleman and Aaron Jones, who will be two of the top choices at running back this week. We break down the fantasy football implications below.
Fantasy football advice: 49ers running back Tevin Coleman
If you plugged Tevin Coleman into your lineups last weekend, you were pleasantly surprised, as he broke out for 105 yards and two touchdowns on 22 carries. That stat line was a great bargain with a price tag of only $3600. Straying from game scripts in weeks prior, Coleman out-snapped every other 49ers running back by at least ten carries, with Raheem Mostert seeing the next largest workload with ten carries. Coleman’s price has now been raised significantly to $5,700 in Classic contests. In Showdown mode his price is set at $8,800 and he will cost you $13,200 to play as your captain.
Recency bias may lead you to plug Coleman into your lineup without hesitation, however when looking at trends over the past five games, Coleman has averaged only 7.2 fantasy points in that span and he failed to see more than five carries in any single game, as Raheem Mostert held on to the top spot in the backfield. Playing any 49ers running back is always a gamble, as Kyle Shanahan is known to use the hot-hand approach.
The Packer’s defense is certainly susceptible to the run, as they allowed an average of 120 rushing yards/game in the regular season and ranked 23rd overall in rush defense. The tricky part is figuring out which 49ers running back will be favored from week to week, which may make Coleman too much of a risk at his current price. That being said, he is the cheapest of the “starting” running backs and provides upside should Shanahan continue to feed him carries. Start him knowing that there is always the chance that Mostert becomes the bargain play this week, should he garner more carries. Mostert comes at a Classic price of $4,300 and $6,400/$9,600 in Showdown mode.
Fantasy football advice: Packers running back Aaron Jones
Aaron Jones continued his domination in the red zone for the Packers last weekend, as he rushed for 62 yards and two touchdowns on 21 carries. Jones has produced a flurry of exceptional fantasy performances as the season nears an end, scoring an average of 24.4 fantasy points per game over the past 5 games. He comes with a price tag of $6,700 this weekend in classic contests. In Showdown mode Jones will cost you $9,600 to place on your roster and $14,400 as your captain.
Jones has been rock solid down the stretch, but there is a chance of regression against the regular season No. 2 overall defense. One reason that may raise concern for Jones’ success is that the 49ers run defense stifled Dalvin Cook last weekend, allowing him to manage only 18 yards on nine carries. The Packers are likely to focus on getting the ground game going this weekend, as the 49ers defense is even more daunting through the air. The Packers have also continued to feed Aaron Jones in the red zone, which is how he scored both of his one yard touchdowns last weekend. His raw talent plus opportunity make him a good option this weekend, despite his tough match-up. He’s a good choice in Classic contests especially if you don’t want to pay top dollar for the likes of Derrick Henry.
Start/Sit Advice:
Start Aaron Jones over Tevin Coleman in Classic contests
Start Aaron Jones over Tevin Coleman Showdown contests